I completely get the doomer POV, but we've somehow navigated all the previous "dangerous" technologies we've created - electricity, phones, internet - every one of those had similar arguments and concerns of danger.
The optimists' argument:-
Politics:- in general, I think many of the problems in the world today are due to misinformation and lack of education. What happens when we start routing things through an ASI that brings data and logic to the table? What happens when politicians can no longer lie without being caught out live on air? In the UK, local authorities are being flooded with complaints and requests from people; for example, some are doing AI-assisted investigations into accounting "errors".
Science:- I just don't see how the current rate of progress doesn't end up in crazy technologies like perfectly simulated human cells, organs and bodies to the point where we can run experiments virtually and solve all diseases in the next few years. This is happening. Perfect weather predictions far into the future, likewise with earthquakes, etc. Solar panel research explosion resulting in huge efficiency gains, to the point where people no longer need to plug their EV in - car surfaces will be covered in solar panels, as will our windows and roofs. Connecting new homes to the grid will be optional - the same way landline phones are no longer a thing.
I just find it very difficult not to extrapolate all the above.
We got this dump of mathematical breakthroughs from one small team in one company with access to this technology. What happens when this SOTA model is available (and it will continue getting better and cheaper) to everyone working on hard problems - every university on the planet starts cranking out AI-assisted research breakthroughs.
> What happens when politicians can no longer lie without being caught out live on air?
If there is perfect lie detecting technology I could see all kinds of chaos resulting from it. I can't see it only be applied only to politicians, and I think it would be the developers of the technology who decide the use.
I think were we disagree is that you sort of see AI as an extension of technological progress whereas I see it more like an extension of evolution. I view the process of AI training as functioning in a similar way to evolution in that it build circuits into neural networks similar to how evolution built circuits into human brains.
Interesting take on the politics, I just don't agree. I think AI will just embed all sorts of biases and people will rely on them as an oracle. IQ and test scores are just dropping worldwide with the introduction of technology.
And don't get me started on climate change, which so far AI is only making worse.
I don't see how, if they're being benchmarked on being more intelligent and being correct/accurate? If an AI can squarely tell us flat out what tax policy won't work and what current governments are doing wrong - surely that's a good thing?
>> What happens when politicians can no longer lie without being caught out live on air?
A 5-second delay on a politician's presser. Any lies will be muted in real time and the actual facts presented onscreen. Continue to lie enough, and the politician gets unstreamed.
I'm still embedded in the OpenAI ecosystem, but man, when I try out Mistral, it is snappy! Like basically instant responses that seem faster and better in quality than ChatGPT on instant mode. I'm impressed.
> I feel like “giving up understanding” is inevitable
People didn't stop understanding how to do addition or subtraction when the calculator came out. That's a simple example, but if the AI is superhuman, I don't see any reason why it cannot break things down into simple concepts. I don't think anything is truly beyond comprehension; it just needs to be explained properly (by someone, or someTHING that really understands it) and, for complex ideas, time taken to understand them.
> given up on understanding parts of our own systems for the exact same reason.
Maybe this will be a sign of when ASI is achieved. AI researchers keep saying they don't fully understand how LLMs work - maybe when ASI arrives, it can explain that fully.
> That's a simple example, but if the AI is superhuman, I don't see any reason why it cannot break things down into simple concepts. I don't think anything is truly beyond comprehension; it just needs to be explained properly
You should try being a teaching assistant or a tutor. "Everyone can be taught everything, it just depends on the teacher" can only be said by someone who never tried this in practice. Just as not everyone can learn advanced math, the best mathematicians also have their own limits and there are things they won't be able to understand or comfortably navigate. Not just because it's a lot of material, but because it's complex inherently.
> Hey is not even a Ruby Rails App anymore. And indirectly admitting Ruby is slow considering they manage to cut 99.9% of CPU with their rewrite in Rust.
Let's see how that goes.
Personally, I wouldn't want all my emails stored on a service where the dude doesn't even look at the code anymore.
Promoting his rails services where the creator and biggest defender of rails replaced rails with an AI generated rust version without writing a single line of code.
His comment is just damage control and biased, it did not state he's heavily invested financially in rails. Not everyone knows who he is, I didn't.
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