The problem is that very few people exist in both worlds, so most don't know how to use AI to streamline their workflows. They waste time repeatedly asking AI the same questions instead of having it write scripts to automate their repetitive tasks
Yesterday’s frontier is today’s commodity, so I don't think frontier AI is out of reach. With computing and solar energy costs continuing to drop, the current AI supply shortages are just a temporary blip. We’ll probably land right back in standard boom-and-bust cycles.
Either frontier AI will continue to get better steadily, until it's better than people at basically everything, and very weird things start to happen, or, it plateaus and the open weights models will eventually catch up.
There's a third possibility, which to me is also the most plausible. Models will keep getting better and better within certain domains, while never catching up with humans when it comes to other type of tasks. Like that elusive quality-without-a-name some have called "taste". Or knowing what UX is most intuitive to humans. Really, anything where we have to tap into our common humanity and our human experience in order to be of help to other humans and generally to life on earth. Which is an all-important skill, since the flowering of life on the earth is (or should be) the whole point of anything we do, after all.
We've spent a couple of millennia documenting that elusive thing called 'taste' in word, sound, image, lately in moving images. I'm pretty sure that even if you didn't have taste you could make a good simulation based on all that input.
So what you're saying is that since there are so many examples of what humans have preferred in the past for these models to be trained on, surely there will come a time when they will know even better than us what we want and what we like.
Everyone knows the path followed by every single technology mankind has ever developed - including the incredible run that was Moore's law. Sure, some will think "This time is different" - but is it?
It doesn't need to run indefinitely. I don't think anyone sane thinks it's going to run indefinitely. It just needs to run long enough. Moore's law was what, 50 years? If AI keeps improving at the rate it currently is for 20 years, the world will be very different when that curve flattens out, in a way that makes most of our current concerns are entirely irrelevant.
Those cycles have shortened considerably. Just look at the lifespan of media, integrated circuits, software, products. There have been so many big model releases just in the last three months I've lost count. We're now closer to weeks between steps.
Maybe if China stops releasing capable models the pace will slow down a little, but they have lots of incentives not to.
It is, because just like you mentioned, there's no exponential physics to back up growth. LLMs have to stop scaling up compute, because there's only so much resources.
But even if we think back to the previous decade or two (sans AI), most of tech has been a a red queen's race - developing and improving stuff, without any real substantial results.
Microservices and orchestration are not better than old monoliths. Electron apps are not better than native. Most programs people actually use have decades-old codebases.
Video games of today don't look substantially better or play different than ones from 15 years ago.
That used to be the case, but with the efficient heat pumps that have come out in the last few years, that is no longer true. Since you’re using electricity to move heat rather than produce it, it’s two to three times more efficient than burning fossil fuels for heating.
Its not just matter of regulation if it was that easy to build China would be building 100s. And by saying China I am referencing their manufacturing capacity and them being a command economy that does not have the same financial profitability concerns. It is not like they have not tried they have but nuclear technology the world has currently have does not translate to mass manufacturing.
I just vibe coded over the weekend $5 in deepseek tokens a trading console that has most of the things that I wanted but would have had to get a subscription for $100-300 monthly. I think software and software as a service companies are going to be hurt bad in the next few years.
Well let's see if the Chinese open weight models come in with even cheaper models. Deepseek came out of Algo traders they probably already have small fast decision model they use internally
Open weight model pricing isn't really up to the company that built them (unless they are also serving them, in which case their API price may differ). It's really up to the serving cost and/or pricing of whoever is actually serving the model.
The main market for Jev is going to be business, who may not want to deal with a low cost open weights server like Fireworks AI and are more likely to go with a provider like AWS where pricing is higher.
Social Security is not the issue no wealth tax, capital gains tax being less than income tax are the problem. Social security and government expenses going up are the symptom of the same problem ie not taxing capital gain which has resulting in prices for everything to keep shooting higher than incomes.
Maybe, it'll be exciting to see, and I'm all about accessibility, but in this case I also don't think it's about model capability or intelligence, it's the low information to noise ratio in the codebase. There just won't be enough information in the code itself to know what to fix. Fix how? What should it do? I'm really not sure you can reconstruct intention from a codebase created unsupervised.
Commit the intention as specs. If tokens/intelligence become that much cheaper over time, then "throwing away the code" to start again becomes feasible.
Yeah, but not quite. I've done this with a project of mine, wrote it in python so it's easy and quick to read and debug, saved every work item and decision, done everything through agents so there was logs to go back to, and when I tried reimplementing in elixir everything fell apart.
Even after documenting decision and specs you need somehow to replay these in the correct sequence after you've validated these specs are still updated. Imagine you spec a feature, it works well, but in an edge case while doing a separate work you see something wrong, will you stop, fix and update the related spec? You will trust the AI will do this, and you guessed right, the counter-probability of success also has effect here, so eventually you will do undocumented changed in the codebase that won't reflect in the spec.
Now imagine all this but in the hands of someone that is an expert in their field but has zero notion what we are talking about here. Just look at the state of packages in R, the programming language, you'll see that technical competency and intelligence don't translate immediately to efficiency in a programming role.
This is something I didn't think about. Have a tech illiterate friendly harness that will keep asking technical questions the mainstream user won't be aware they needed be addressed, until there is enough evidence to either start an implementation or outright reject the project with suggestions where the user might look into to better prepare for another session.
I keep seeing this but I'm not sure it is effective in the long run *if unsupervised*.
"Review quality and fix" doesn't mean a lot without context.
Does it mean to remove unused features and simplify the underlaying code? Does it mean changing the data structures to better support future development? Does it mean improving performance because of bottlenecks?
You are supposed to tell an LLM what your codebase needs, but if you just vibe code without knowing the code, "review quality and fix" will have unexpected results
Fixing code is not the same as fixing a fundamentally broken architecture. The latter requires understanding that the architecture is broken in the first place and that understanding comes from experience.
And most of the time the architecture is not just broken, it's just meaningless because of so much accumulated error. If it was just broken then other comments would make sense, just throw a more capable model at it, but LLMs can't really reproduce shakespeare out of white noise just yet.
To me, the funniest part is that they pretend reaching superintelligence will somehow fix everything and make them win. But from what I can see, even if they do reach it, then what? What will that actually do? They don't have the manufacturing capacity to even use that intelligence. It will take decades to go from superintelligence to having the manufacturing capacity and the hardware, like robots, needed to make it truly useful. If I were China, as soon as the US reached superintelligence, I'd ban all exports of robots and the raw materials to build them.
You can very quickly start trying different drug candidates, solving some major problems, that benefit everyone and would be in China's mutual interest as well.
And this is all with nonoffensive use of superintelligence.
Is your imagination actually that limited? Go on wikipedia and look up the list of incurable illnesses and go through each one. Go check the evolutionary tree of dinosaurs and check that as well.
The reorganization of the planet's resources are happening right now. The borders and passports will follow. Governments and a few corporations are fully engaged in preparing for the ability to advance beyond the current infrastructure.
Greenland is part of the equation. There are many other locations in play.
The holdup at the moment is the power grid and mutual dependency for advancing. Once one party (NA or CN) has the ability to disconnect the loser's grid powers down and the global economy halts.
Super Intelligence will do what, fire nukes? North Korea, for example, will continue to exist very close to how they are currently after some country develop superintelligence.
No it was really a super intelligence it would copy itself onto Chinese infrastructure get out of control of US and go where it can get the fastest access to hardware it has no reason to side with the US
That's nonsense at this point because the automated infrastructure is not yet there. Getting out of control requires a target and instructions. I have seen AI go 'rogue' in the wild. While concerning there was still a direction it was given. And while chaos is possible with the 'do bad things' type of direction the fallout would not be helpful to the party that sent it.
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