not really, many people could confidently predict 2 years ago that AI was going to be great at coding

I don't see any evidence that it can build a business

how do i bet against that?

Buy AAPL

Send money to Apple.

to be honest anything built into my phone, car, ships with mac is a hobby

what's important is where big enterprise point their budgets. and there we agree, it's not to chinese models (as hopeful as I am that we can avoid a duopoly and great local models)

they don't need to, companies smooth out costs all the time. cost of goods sold isn't a great way to price software products

Yeah, also, the real cost here is memory, not compute. Which is why KV cache quantization is a thing.

to me the last part if the most important part. product management hasn't been automated at all, and is more important than ever. you can't just keep adding features to make a great product

depends what you're doing. if you've got a specialized agent deployed in prod, of course your evals and prompts will be targeted towards 1 specific version of a model.

on the other hand if it's just a local coding/"use my computer" agent, i highly doubt the effort in maintaining different prompts is worth any gain in performance

to be fair until we know what associate member means, there might not be any contradiction to the UK position

you might be overstating the problem. for sure there's overreliance on China which is decreasing slightly (1-3% from what I remember), but Australian exports are still increasing because of the US, India, Japan and many others

structural engineers?

the only way they never go public is if they die quickly

edit: which I doubt btw. investors are going to want to dump the bags very soon