have you used Siri vs. the new crop of personal ai assistants?

siri is horrific

You may think Siri is horrific, but it can do what the poster is asking for at less cost than an LLM.

because revenue growth is much more important at this stage, and investors are underwriting based on the first and second derivative

I think you are seeing new competitors rising, the technology has unlocked a new wave of startups growing faster than ever before

The incumbents are mostly grown up and are using it to cut costs

How much of these falls are due to the AI buildout as a whole vs. AI disrupting certain business models?

More agents browsing the web and people relying on AI summaries -> less revenue for Google Search and Reddit

AI drastically reducing the barrier to game dev -> less users on Roblox

> AI drastically reducing the barrier to game dev -> less users on Roblox

Is that really a thing? AI can make mediocre games for your own amusement, but Roblox is a social experience.

Probably a mix of both. There's a gigantic amount of costs (and debt) piling up for many companies without anything to show for it when it comes to generating revenue.

But for sure a lot of businesses are getting disrupted - Adobe and now Google are good examples. Just that Google has quite a lot of areas where it shouldn't be so bad - Android, Youtube, mail & storage, cloud. And AI lets them reduce headcounts which is a very big cost.

i thought youtube is taking off like crazy due to reduced attention span for tv/movies.

Yeah Youtube has no real competitor and AI shouldn't disrupt it that much, aside from the inflow of AI generated content which might be a problem on the storage cost side.

But most of Google's income is from search and AI/LLMs are killing it off pretty fast. Maybe they'll try to more forcibly inject ads into the summary output.

Anthropic, OAI, Meta, xXSpaceXAIXx all will need to put ads in their free models at some point. Google of course will too.

There is no future timeline where people are giving away compute for free. Right now we are still in the "Get them hooked" phase.

or maybe google can create paid plans for their search and stop being free

I think when AIs start summarising YouTube videos it will take a hit too.

I do this a lot already, I run the audio through a transcriber and get an LLM to summarise that. I deeply hate watching videos because I have a short attention span (ADHD). I'm really glad I now have the tools to not have to do that anymore. Because some content is only available in video or podcast format.

i think thats a very specific subset of ppl consuming technical cotent where ai summary makes sense.

most of youtube is pop content that doesnt make sense to summarize. Because ppl are trying to get entertained not gain knowledge. take a look at top trending videos.

All the money is in Shorts now. Lots of channels saying how much money they are making from them, and not their "long form" 15-30 minute videos.

I would think Roblox's user loss is more about age gate friction. [1]

Which is what everyone wanted right?

[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/article/roblox-ceo-cites-c...

nationalization is likely on the horizon, but definitely not to wind them down (quite the opposite)

none (unless you count google and meta),

but profitability is a very narrow view on the labs, and investors are pricing in future free cash flow

you need to take into account the derivative, what is their growth? their opex and capex? their revenue growth? their moat? New product lines and applications?

Not saying that it's a homerun, but there is a case to be made for the labs being wildly profitable in 4-10 years

Its the same conundrum any BI tool is going to have (sigma, tableau, redash)

likely they focus on something orthogonal, like trust and security, permissions, etc

fwiw i work at one of their 'top customers' and found their ai to be really useful for spinning up basically ephemeral dashboards for anyone to use (aka, i dont need to file a request to the data team and wait for someone to get back to me or go back and forth). i just ask it to do the thing.

Darn, i liked their old site better

Huh? uber is an amazing success story given their market dominance and enterprise value created. of course the next kid on the block (Waymo) is going to do the same thing

The price of a given point on the intelligence frontier is only going to get cheaper, likely 10-20x over the next few years.

seems like the opposite is occurring, job postings are climbing and so is comp

software is easier to build -> the world builds more software

But yes, the act of translating spec into code as a 'programmer' is gone for good.