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Tailscale takes two minutes to setup and you can add more devices with zero configuration.

WireGuard takes 30 mins to an hour to set up, you'll need to configure port forwarding, DDNS, create keys for each device, and add them to each device manually. But you have 100% control.

Performance-wise, I haven't noticed a difference. My internet connection maxes out way before Tailscale hits any performance limits.

Tailscale wins for convenience.


The preprint papers on arXiv are like 99% the same as the published versions, except they're free instead of locked behind a multi-thousand dollar/year paywall.

And if there are differences, that is often a good thing! It can mean the author wanted to format something in a particular way that the journal didn't allow.

Often they are extended versions of the journal articles and contain valuable material that had to be cut for space limits.

> The preprint papers on arXiv are like 99% the same as the published versions, except they're free instead of locked behind a multi-thousand dollar/year paywall.

I don't think you fully understand the problem. It doesn't matter if you can find in arxiv a preprint of an article published on a reputable journal. What matters is that right besides that paper you will find a dozen other papers that can be utter nonsense generated by a poorly calibrated slop factory. You don't find those in papers published in respectable journals which enforce double blind peer review and were filtered for relevance and quality.

It's that peer review process that creates value and relevance. Otherwise all you have is a glorified file server.


The best formula for public transit is the Rail plus Property business model. In Hong Kong, the MTR Corporation buys up land adjacent to a planned future station, then builds the station afterwards. Then makes money from renting out the properties adjacent to the station.

JR East in Japan operates in the same way: it makes the majority of its profit from the real estate, malls, and hotels it operates adjacent to its train stations.


No need to give distant examples - the US train boom used the same strategy.

Did it? I always assumed the US train boom aligned with shipping companies more than land at the destinations, which is why even today cargo gets priority over Amtrak.

Outside of the Eastern part of the US, the railroad land grant programs were a major part.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railroad_land_grants_in_the_Un...

This is a part of why there were so many tiny little towns out West which were essentially just a railroad stop and a few buildings.


the US train boom is much further away.

you can get to hong kong or jspan in hours to days. the train boom is about a century away


Sound Transit still uses this strategy in Seattle region.

They really don't. They don't build residential or commercial property.

I don't like having more feudalism though. One company owning all the good land - yikes!

The government should own it. All infrastructure like that should be in a nations hand.

Ah yes, the government has never completely botched prime real estate before, nor have they ever botched housing build projects.

Federal and state governments own large parcels of prime NYC, LA, SF, Chicago and other metro land, most of which is underutilized. As an example, they operate or sublease numerous surface level parking lots in those places.

The federal government owns a prime parcel on State Street in Chicago, prime real estate, that is completely abandoned. There are many examples of this.

Your solution is to place this responsibility into the hands of those who have shown complete and utter incompetence across successive administrations?


Yes. My solution is also been shown to work in countries like Switzerland [0], makes the areas around train stations way more livable and return the gains back to the entire populace. I'd even go so far and make the sourrounding area unsellable but leased out for 99 years. Perhaps it's also a mentality difference between EU and US. We guys in the old world aren't (in general) as hypercapitalists or distrustful/follow Reageanismns like “The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the Government, and I'm here to help.”

[0] https://sbb-immobilien.ch/en/station-surroundings/


And then the government gets to decide who can lease that prime real estate next to the station? Sure, that won’t have any problems with corruption

Having a central arbiter of contested resources is literally the reason governments exist.

Sure, that might be the optimal strategy. But to fix what already exists, using self driving cars to feed in to the existing network could work.

Especially if the Waymo data feeds back to the government to plan scheduled PT on the most popular routes.


The reason there's not more public transit is because the economics are terrible. Looking at the financials:

  Cost per passenger trip:
    BART: $1.07B operating expenses / 59.5M trips = $16.92
    SF Muni: $1.13B / 160M trips = $7.06
    Caltrain: $225M / 9.1M trips = $24.73

  Passenger Fare collected per trip:
    BART: $259M / 59.5M trips = $4.35
    SF Muni: $111M / 160M trips = $0.69
    Caltrain: $58.7M / 9.1M trips = $6.45

  Subsidy per trip:
    BART: $12.57
    SF Muni: $6.37
    Caltrain: $18.27

  Cost per passenger mile:
    BART: $1.07B / 892.5M passenger miles = $1.20/mile
    SF Muni: $1.13B / 312M = $3.62/mile
    Caltrain: $225M / 177.5M = $1.27/mile

  Subsidy per passenger mile:
    BART: $1.07B / 892.5M passenger miles = $0.84/mile
    SF Muni: $1.13B / 312M = $3.26/mile
    Caltrain: $225M / 177.5M = $0.94/mile
Every single ride requires a $6 to $18 subsidy, paid for by tax dollars.

For comparison, federal spending for the interstate highway system is about 2-3 cents per passenger mile.


> The reason there's not more public transit is because the economics are terrible.

The reason we don't have roads is because the economics are terrible. The government gets $0 per trip [1], but it costs billions of dollars a year in operating expenses.

Wait, that's not how it works.

[1] Federal gas taxes don't count, because those go to the Highway Trust Fund which funds road construction, which is not an operating expense. State gas taxes may vary. Although toll roads also properly charge people user fees, although for some reason, lots of drivers complain about how expensive tolls are...


> Federal gas taxes don't count, because those go to the Highway Trust Fund which funds road construction, which is not an operating expense.

Doesn't the Highway Trust Fund pay for road maintenance as well?


The Highway Trust Fund pays primarily for highway capital expenditure projects. It's not just highway construction; things like replacing a bridge or widening a highway are also covered, but these are also capital expenses, not operational expenses. A portion of it goes to funding mass transit capital expenditures.


The economics of roads are actually pretty good which is why basically every country has them, even the poorest.

if they are, the equivalent effort of analysis done on public transit also doesnt show it.

instead you need to find the overall economic benefit and related government revenues from each transit trip, not just the cost of the trip alone


But you can't ignore the financials. SF Muni's $3.62 cost per passenger mile is atrocious. At that price point, it's cheaper to charter a helicopter. I'm not kidding. You could literally charter a 20-seat Airbus H175 helicopter to fly people around for $2.50 per passenger mile. And you'd get there faster.

If public transit is less cost-effective than taking a helicopter, then something is clearly broken.


Of course, this is what happens when there's no profit motive. If we weren't making the marginal cost of using a road zero, and they had to compete with each other, and the people running transit wanted to make money rather than satisfy the requirements of a law, transit would be cheaper. That's how it is in all the places in the world where transit is really good.

Or it wouldn’t exist at all in in this form…

It would look like NYC or Tokyo. Both built privately.

NYC's subway system is an amalgamation of three systems, two of them built privately (but both of whom subsequently went bankrupt) and the third built by the city.

Of course they went bankrupt. We built free to use roads to compete with them.

They went bankrupt in part because although privately owned, they depended on a city charter to operate, and the City used that charter to force them to keep fares unsustainably low (I believe it was a nickel).

Same as Seattle! And thank god Japan and Hong Kong don't do that to theirs.

Is it just because of an artificial low denominator?

It's circular:

* Few take it because it doesn't meet their need [low denominator]

* Let's spend money to make it meet people's need [numerator goes up]

...

?


Good luck scaling that “solution!”

Dude. Public transit can carry hundreds of thousands (millions even). How many helicopters you planning on having? How many landing pads? Where are they going to go? You going to spin up a municipal ATC? This is silly.

I'm not advocating for helicopters at all - it's an analogy that clearly went over your head.

It's about cost comparison: SF Muni's operating costs (in terms of costs per passenger mile) are so bloated they're comparable to chartering a helicopter.

This should not be possible, and it's a strong signal of poor fiscal management. SF Muni operates at $3.62 per passenger mile. For comparison, Transport for London (TfL) operates at around $0.50/passenger mile and Shanghai Metro operates at $0.11/passenger mile.


Perhaps what’s broken is your financial analysis.

Please show his error.

Doesn’t account for the cost of helicopter landing platforms at every station, for one. Or the cost of building additional helicopters to meet current BART scale, or the cost of the number of accidents you’d have once it scaled, or the cost of having all transit halt whenever there’s an air incident, or literally anything about reality. Like, are you people being serious or just smirking about your spherical helicopters?

His point was that Bart's current cost are HIGHER per passenger mile than the current cost of a helicopter, which is a notoriously expensive form of transportation (and also one of the most convenient).

Note that a 12 seat private jet also costs less per passenger mile than BART does. That's not beacuse jets are cheap, but because BART is currently absurdly expensive.


The error is completely ignoring the negative economic externalities of NOT having public transportation and the positive economic and environmental externalities of having public transportation.

Roads are fully paid for by road users (i.e. everyone).

huh? Public transportation is fully paid for by everyone too.

Yes, but most people don't use public transit.

Not really. That’s a tautology anyway.

Infrastructure for cars is massively subsidised too. Since tansport is infrastructure it it interacts with everything else (eg less cars in the city => less spending on car infra) and has a lot of positive externalities. The investment pays back in positive outcomes which can also be quantified in terms of money of you like. It's like you've got a balance sheet but you're filtering it to only look at two items.

Additionally, the other poster failed to mention that the unit economics for the marginal rider are much more favorable.

Yes, but public transit does create value - the question is who captures it.

BART likely created huge profits for people who owned land in the areas it services - house prices and rents would have increased substantially. Public investment, private profits. Subsidies in the form of low-cost fares like this are just further welfare for the landowners.

Interestingly, about a third of BART's cost was acquiring land - if/when that same land is cleared and sold on market, the project would have operated at an enormous profit. Certainly, BART's current assets would far exceed 'total fares collected'.


this is a great example of why we need to shift to land value / Georgist taxes everywhere

>BART likely created huge profits for people who owned land in the areas it services

Unless you try to build housing.

https://reason.com/2018/02/21/san-francisco-man-has-spent-4-...


Interesting story but it actually is an example of a landowner's massive windfall from the presence of public transport.

Tillman cites $1M of costs, of which $200k were 'city fees' (not itemized) and the rest were presumably normal costs for developers/engineers/architects/etc (of course, these would potentially be smaller if there was less regulation). The development start to approval time of 3.5 years is not crazy for a first time 'accidental developer' working on such a large project.

After approval, there seems to have been a~12 month period of bad faith activists slowing down the project. Tillman filed a lawsuit, did a media campaign, and the project was re-approved later in 2018.

He then sold the pre-approved project to a Cresleigh Homes for $13.5 million in early 2019.

So we've had 6 years of financial delays as Cresleigh tries to fund the build vs maybe 1 year of 'bad faith' development approval delays 2017-2018.

And of course - funding the build would have been much easier if the landowner didn't want $13.5 million for an empty lot! (or $12 million if you subtract the development costs). So arguably Tillman did more to delay housing than anyone else.


Looks like the address is 2918 mission, still no apartment complex there according to web maps, though the laundromat building is demolished it seems. So perhaps by 2034, a good 20 years since the start of the project.

> public transit does create value - the question is who captures it.

Overpaid transit employees, engineering firms, and construction companies.


That's a minuscule amount of the value it creates. And that's a problem, and a problem we can only fix by privatizing it. But most of the value it creates is for the landowners around it. And that's why successful transit companies are also real estate developers. Even in our own history, that's how private transit worked before we killed it.

Most of the value it creates is for the riders and the non-riders who don't have to deal with more congestion.

That's the value, but not what capture means. If you have to pay $50/week extra rent to get that benefit, then the true value was 'captured' by your landlord. If you owned your house before the trainline was built, you probably captured more of that value yourself.

Cars are also subsidized (roads) - isn't that what taxes are for?

If we could go back to pre-pandemic ridership levels, the subsidy rate would be inverted (fares covered 70% versus 30% now). Public Transit struggles with low utilization. It'll take 10+ years to get back to that ridership level though.


Sure, but cars aren't subsidized at $18 dollars per trip. The cost to the government of providing and maintaining roads is on the order of several cents per vehicle mile traveled.

For BART, that number is:

$1.07B operating expense / 892.5M million passenger miles traveled = $1.20 per mile. Then subtract out the fare per mile and the government is paying $0.84/mile for people to ride BART.


> the government is paying $0.84/mile for people to ride BART

If BART disappeared tomorrow, how much would the government have to pay to build all the additional roads and parking to support that incremental traffic?

And how much for healthcare for all the incremental pollution and collisions?

> several cents per vehicle mile

It's close to a dollar per mile when you include all the externalized costs.

Incremental property damage, injuries and fatalities, incremental chronic illness from pollution, parking land subsidy, fair market value of incremental land use and rights of way, lost tax revenue from that incremental land use, etc.


Caltrain rides allow riders to be productive during the ride and generate income taxes in a way that cars do not.

In general, this is why semi-private or private transport works so much better. If the end user is getting a bunch more value out of working on the train, they will pay more for the train than the road (if they have to pay the full price of the road vs train each time they use each).

If you look at how American cities are laid out, the cost on society of car infrastructure is massive. Roads and parking space use up a very significant percentage of the real estate in an American city. Public transit is far more efficient with space, so it saves society as a whole a lot of money.

Private autonomous transportation will allow that public infrastructure to be tenfold more productive.

Public transportation will never have the incentive to minimize cost and headcount.

Where we do have public transportation, it should always face competition from private offerings - including on the tracks, as they do in Italy, for example.


That's not true. For example, France is rapidly automating its metros. The US is quite unique in viewing public transport as a jobs program rather than a public service.

Of course it has the incentive. Even in this thread people are getting mad about it costing too much.

When someone says incentive in this context, they usually mean the individual incentives of each of the workers to make money for themselves, get promoted to get a share of profit, not the overall fuzzy public pressure.

And low density suburbs in America are never going to get torn up and re-platted so autonomous vehicles is the only way to improve safety.

On the contrary, our biggest cities started as little groups of houses. Letting places increase their density is a natural solution to a lot of this. The core problem is that we need to take away the power of local government to limit development.

The roads and houses are constructed with such separation and space that it is literally impossible without eminent domain of basically every lot. It’s simply not a possibility to turn the suburbs with huge stroads and subdivisions into mixed use high density living.

The separation and space tends to resolve itself slowly and naturally as density increases. You get the pressure from the new people who live there to make crossings shorter and safer. It's slow, but it is effective.

Citations please? Seriously, you are making up numbers for the cost of cars and the govt subsidies provided. Did you account for the DMV? Did you account for traffic police? Did you account for the installation and maintenance of traffic light systems? Of course you didn't.

The numbers aren’t made up. The Federal government publishes these statistics annually, they're widely used by policy analysts, and they're simple to calculate yourself.

The Federal government spends ~$17.5B/year on maintaining and constructing the interstate highway system. Americans drive 852 billion miles/year on it. The cost per Vehicle Mile Traveled (VMT) is 2.1 cents / mile.

If we look at all government spending (Federal, State, Local) on highways, roads, and supporting infrastructure (which includes traffic management systems), that's around $285B/year and 3.28 trillion miles, or 8.7 cents per Vehicle Mile Traveled.

The cost to the government to provide and maintain roads is on the order of several cents per mile traveled per year. Roads are simply much more cost-effective to build and maintain than dedicated public transit infrastructure.


You're missing a lot of externalities here.

Also, the cost to a driver of the car is around $0.70 not including cost to the government and cost of externalities.


As others are explaining, these calculations are essentially spurious due to all the off-the-books externalities.

In a city the only question that surely matters is: Can the mode of transport be scaled? For private car transit, the answer is no. No city can function if everyone gets around by car. Even Houston has light rail and a bus network. If you can drive and your city somehow remains livable, that is because other people are taking transit.


iirc the NYC subway is only about 40% subsidized by fares. I’m happy to pay more in taxis for it to exist and subsidize lower income residents. There are huge economic benefits to the city that you’re not factoring in.

Not everything has to be directly money making.

If anything, the Bay Area needs significantly more public transit. BART in particular is mostly useful between cities, in my experience. You can’t go from the mission to cow hollow or dog patch to north beach, let alone anywhere to the ocean.

Also, subways don’t have much (if any) marginal cost per passenger. The issue isn’t cost but ridership. Ridership will increase with utility, which requires political will, which does not exist.

SF could be so much more.


If you think subways have no marginal cost per passenger, you should consider Zeno’s paradox more

If you think there would be zero cost to shutting down the NYC subway and putting everyone riding it into cars...

For another comparison, Moscow Central Diameters system (electric trains traveling from Moscow to nearby small towns) has 4 lines, 137 stations, 188 miles total length. It uses united fare payment system with buses and subway and transfer from a train to the subway is free of charge. Fare is about $1-$3 depending on the route. To be fair, it goes through Moscow at a slow speed and takes an eternity to get anywhere, and its range is limited [1].

Moscow subway [2] has 17 lines and 309 stations. In newer cars, 2 USB-A sockets are available near every seat, ready for robots.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_Central_Diameters

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_Metro


But the Bay Area’s highway networks are at saturation during peak hours. 101 and 280 are at least as bad as before the pandemic.

We have under-utilized transit corridors that could alleviate much of this strain if they weren’t so damn far away from where the people sitting in traffic want to go.


You are completely ignoring the MASSIVE benefit the transit provides to the city. It allows densification. It allows people to get places without driving (and thus without parking). It frees up roads/traffic for those who do decide to drive.

Are you arguing that specific past bad economics are somehow indicative of a theoretical hard ceiling for any potential future performance? If so, how are other places in the world then regularly above that ceiling?

Yeah but the cost per passenger is in the hundreds due to private car ownership

Are you factoring in fixed costs to that estimate? That may be partially misleading if so.

Obviously yes, you have to since the vast majority of expenses (>70%) are fixed costs. If you only exclude them and only look at marginal costs, they're profitable.

But you cannot run a transit system on marginal costs, so using that comparison is also misleading.


Thought experiment: What would happen with total profitability, given positive marginal unit economics, if readership were to greatly increase?

I’d imagine it would get really congested unless massive fixed costs were expended to make the system higher capacity.

The usual rule of thumb is that fixed costs of public transit are covered by increased property values. It could mean a private transit company developing the areas around stations (as it often works in Japan), or it could mean the government getting more money from property taxes. Or it could even mean more money from income taxes, if the transit project stimulates economic activity.

If a transit project doesn't increase property values enough to justify the investment, or if the entity funding the project cannot extract that value, the project rarely makes sense.


Now you’ve created a property tax regime where nobody is going to want to own residential property near a transit station.

Do you mean that nobody wants property values go up? The government gets more property taxes, because properties near transit stations are more valuable than in other places.

I certainly don't want my property taxes to go up, and since I'm not planning to sell or take out a big loan, my property value going up does me no good at all.

Yes, if you don't intend to sell, and actually want to live somewhere, higher property values just mean higher taxes (or if constrained like with Prop 13, declining services).

This doesn't have to be true. Washington State, for example defines the amount of property tax revenue to be charged and then divides that in proportion to everyone's taxable value.

So if everyone's value goes up 40% your property tax bill stays the same. If your area climbed faster than others, it goes up but not by 40%.


If property prices increase 40%, then cost of living increases, government needs to collect additional revenue to pay employees a living wage, and that feeds into taxes. Even without higher order effects, the above chain was literally about net increases in property taxes to fund more services and saying it's fine because property values increase (in specific locations, too). But property values are not a tangible thing for anyone who doesn't want to sell.

declining services here would mean that transit station stops gwtting service though, decreasing your property value

typically people want to live nearby transit stations because it means you can get places cheaply.

the property value goes up because of increased demand for it


How is it misleading? Taking the total cost to operate and dividing by the number of rides tells you what it costs per ride.

I’d be more interested to know how so many people are paying less than $1 for a mini trip when the fare is closer to $3.


Because it makes in implicit comparison with a hypothetical transportation mode with zero dollars of government subsidy.

The automobile analogue to fares is gas taxes, so the first crack at a true comparison is to compare the Caltrans budget to gas tax receipts.


Subsidies for public goods create economic multiples. It’s not plainly obvious that it’s bad to subsidize a trip by $10. And compared to what? How much is interstate infrastructure subsidized per trip? Or airline infrastructure?

I think most economists would contend that the value of the subsidies is largely captured by landowners. Public investment, private profits.

is it though?

the person riding transit benefits themselves, and their landlord, and the people driving.

they also benefit their workplace, by both working there, and not having to store a car there, and then anywhere they spend money at their destination, or the transit stops they used.

the value of the transit line is all over the place


Largely it is, according to both classical economic theory and modern empirical studies.

Often called 'land value uplift' these days, or 'unearned increment'/'land monopoly rents' in days gone by.

Theoretically in a free market, the landlords will be able to increase rent in proportion to the 'market value' of the convenience to the tenants (short commutes, etc). Likewise, homeowners will sell for a higher price - capturing the value that would be conferred to new owners. A city with good transport demands higher rents in outer suburbs serviced by that transport.

Your workplace likely also rents their premises too. They now have a convenient train station 5 minutes' walk away - and guess what, their landlord ups the rents too. Once again, in proportion to the 'market value' of the convenience to the workplace. The nearby cafes will now increase their coffee price to cover their increased rent.

Although this is the position of most economists, politicians are often reluctant to draw attention to it. Instead, where I live, they use models like commute time saved per person' x 'number of people' x 'average hourly wage'.

You can verify all of this yourself by viewing residential and commercial rental listings in your city.

Many economists have proposed solutions to this problem, often in the form of land value taxes.


and that's why property tax exists (land value tax would be better, but anyway).

They're discarding the cost per mile to a driver. If you add that back (and especially if you add externalities back) driving is more expensive.

I mean my own PERSONAL per mile cost for a car is around $1/mi/yr, and it has a low interest rate loan and well below average monthly payment. Accounting for car insurance, gas, and maintenance.

And that’s not even counting for however much I’m subsidized on the highway and road systems I don’t pay anything to use.

Public transit is definitely expensive, but the alternative is also very costly and also regressive. The goal with public transit is to provide a low-cost, high-density way to move people around the city. It’s a public service, it shouldn’t be making profit. Car ownership is more expensive in total and very space-inefficient. Cities don’t have room for space inefficiency.


Blew my mind when I learned that about Caltrain. I thought tickets felt a little expensive, then I learned what it really should cost.

You know subsidy per train passenger mile?


Yeah I was shocked as well when I learned about the financials. I'll the subsidy per passenger mile to the table as well.

I remember talking to a VC a few years back, and he vehemently explained why he will never ever fund companies related to public transit, for this reason. Public transit was one of the two sectors he would not invest in (the other being materials science).


Incredible!!! Wow, is this apparent extraordinary cost discrepancy anybody’s fault, or is that just how it has to be?

In my opinion, the primary driver is the astronomical cost of housing in the SF bay area (which is 3x the national average), which drives up the cost of all labor. Public transit is infrastructure heavy, very labor intensive, and the high cost of labor makes it very expensive.

In the bay, low-skilled / manual laborers spend >50% of their income on housing. Many can't afford to live here, so they demand higher wages or leave, which drives up the price of labor even further.

If sufficient housing were built and the Bay Area had the same housing prices as the rest of the US, then 1) the supply of labor would go up 2) wages could fall by 30-40% without a quality of life decrease. Businesses could reduce their labor costs by 20%, which would improve the QoL of everyone in the area, including manual laborers. When local businesses cut costs, then everything costs less (food, housing, transport), and QoL goes up.

Then run this process iteratively and you will see massive reductions in prices everywhere, the cost of everything will go down by 30%+ percent.

For the case of BART, they spend ~$800 million / year on labor, so reducing cost here has the highest RoI. They would save hundreds of millions per year.


That's a feature, not a bug. Public transport is viewed as a jobs program in the US.

Buy America Act makes buses roughly three times more expensive, and then they use decades-old technology due to a lack of competition.

The MTA in NYC has two-person subway crews, which is almost unprecedented in this day and age. BART could be driverless if unions wouldn't revolt.

There's an irony that American unions are strong enough to prevent automatization, but weak enough to fear it (unlike say Denmark or France).


Looking at the financials outside the US might also be relevant. There are no reasons for the US to be special here in my opinion.

There is a reason why the US is special - Buy America Act. New Flyer and Gillig would collapse almost immediately if they were exposed to global competition.

I thought you guys were capitalists? Surely we should let them fail if they can't compete in a real free market

What is the amortized cost of all the cars, car infrastructure, driver monitoring and enforcement, parking easements and lots, gasoline, insurance, harm to people inflicted by uninsured drivers?

What would be the cost of turning all those transit trips into car trips? Would rush hour start at 5 am and end at 10 pm?


And how much do people spend on cars, gas, maintenance, insurance, parking, etc.?

This is the sad truth.

A lot of people are commenting about "externalities". That's just handwaving.

The real solution is to increase the ridership and the frequency. Public transit must be _reliable_. I live in SF and experience Muni's unreliability first hand.

The reason a person would prefer to drive over taking the Muni is a simple one: she knows the car will be there when she's ready to head back. Muni, on the other hand: one never knows when the next bus will come or if it will come at all. And then the City hands out Muni passes to all homeless people, regardless of behavior. Yesterday I sat down in a Muni train and guess what? A used piece of TP (about a foot long) was blowing around on the floor and everybody was playing dodge-the-TP, trying to jump out of its way. Buses and trains are often not cleaned at the end of the day.

Question is: why doesn't the City subsidize Uber/Waymo etc. also to the tune of $6.37/trip (inside SF)?


If you think that's bad, you should look at the financial returns on highways and roads! A much grimmer picture

it's almost like public transport is a service and not a for profit business

That's fine. It's just a matter of how unprofitable it should be. BART taxpayers are getting an absolutely terrible value for their money.

How unprofitable should it be?

I think a big reason for this is that PDF editing tools are just pretty terrible.

PDFs are meant to be a presentation document format, not an editable document format. I have some experience editing PDFs, and it's difficult to make significant modifications. Editing small sections of text or replacing a date is fine, but once you try to start editing entire paragraphs or changing the layout, it quickly becomes unmanageable. The kerning looks weird, the spacing between words looks off, and when you look into it you realize the the sentence you're trying to edit is actually split across a dozen text objects. For these it becomes almost impossible to edit without destroying the spacing, so you just give up.

And the approved way to edit these PDFs is via Adobe Acrobat Pro, which costs $20/month (ugh), which I'm not willing to pay for.

So I think this is why we just don't see that many PDF forgeries. The editing tools just aren't very good. Maybe it's different now we can just ask Claude to edit our PDFs for us.


PDF's are not Presentation Document Format. Should be "Portable".

Main point of parent still stands - PDF's are not meant to be edited one should generate new from the source material and that's it.

They're "portable" in that they can be "universally" read. Not that you can create and manage them.

Editing PDF's is worse than editing documents in Microsoft Word!

Even generating them on the fly can be a real pain. I had a workflow when I was out of work to auto-generate a CV based upon re-writing sections to match the spec. So I'd have pre-written blocks and slot them in. And yet, somehow, even then it would break formatting all over the place.


>I think a big reason for this is that PDF editing tools are just pretty terrible.

Inkscape is a pretty good tool to edit .pdfs

when you import a regular .pdf, it needs to convert it once, and once saved, you can edit the pdf and work on it as if it was a regular .svg

if you choose to embed the fonts when saving, .pdf files becomes easy to work on, you don't even need to export them.


I believe OURA is living on borrowed time and only exists because Apple hasn't yet entered the smart ring market. It's a repeat of the Fitbit situation. Before the Apple Watch launched in 2015, Fitbit had 30% of the wearables market. Then the Apple came in, and Fitbit started bleeding users: high end ones to the Apple Watch, and low end ones to cheap Chinese competition. Fitbit eventually collapsed and got sold in a fire sale to Google.

Apple is already rumored to be working on their own smart ring. Samsung is already in the market. This is one reason why Oura is in a rush to IPO, they need liquidity for early investors + cash to compete before Apple comes in and takes a huge slice of their market.


It's more or less the same precarious position Pebble had in the very early 2010s. When Apple Watch came out, they were wiped out.

Also, RIP to the Tile company. I haven't seen a company fade away that fast when Apple came out with Tag

There is no bounty, RSA labs ended the $75,000 reward in 2007.


There's about 900 BTC remaining for anyone who breaks these keys:

https://privatekeys.pw/puzzles/bitcoin-puzzle-tx

If you break one though be careful when redeeming it, there are bots set up to pounce and steal the coins when they are transacted because the reduced entropy makes that possible. You need to submit the transaction to a mining pool that will not broadcast it until it is mined.


thats a poorly implemented reward script, if it leaves you exposed to the mining pool with this gentleman's agreement.

the script could have been designed 2 phase, so one first submits a hash of the solution & submitter address, so even if miners front-run the submitter, they just helpfully pay the transaction fee!


I've recently been working on this exact problem due to my desire to create puzzle challenges for Simplicity, the smart contract programming environment that I work on for my job.

Since Simplicity runs on Bitcoin-like blockchains, someone can swipe the witness data from the legitimate winner's proposed transaction, and create a new transaction (perhaps with a higher fee) using the same claim data and sending the prize to a different address.

Anyway, I ended up implementing a two-phase commit mechanism in which you pay a deposit to temporarily lock the prize so that it can only be paid out to your address. If you then make a valid claim, the prize can be paid to you; if you don't, you forfeit your deposit.

https://community.simplicity-lang.org/t/running-prize-contes...

(I think this was suggested by Russell O'Connor, the inventor of Simplicity, but it may have been a widespread idea in the smart contracts world. I don't know whether there's a straightforward way to implement it with Bitcoin Script, which is what this older prize would have needed.)


I don't claim to know the nuance of what you're trying to address with this.

Wouldn't it be simpler to simply protect a bitcoin private key with the encryption that you are challenging people to break?

Off the top of my head, the only downside I can see is that someone could drain the wallet without publishing the key, but people like to brag, so it seems unlikely to be a problem in practice.


That would work if you were only demonstrating encryption or creating challenges related to encryption, but some challenges don't map very easily to a cipher (though you might be able to get them to map to a cipher key).

In Simplicity (and in a sense in Bitcoin Script) there's a broader concept of "if you show you know information X, you're entitled to this money", but it has this specific issue that if the information or the entitlement to receive money for knowing it isn't unique to a specific recipient, there will automatically be a witness swiping or front-running risk for architectural reasons.


There is no script.


Of course there's a script; every bitcoin tx output has a script. These challenges use the standard P2PKH script, i.e.:

  scriptPubKey: OP_DUP OP_HASH160  OP_EQUALVERIFY OP_CHECKSIG
  scriptSig:  
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Script


Not every bitcoin tx output.

With taproot (P2TR), scripts are optional, and outputs can be based solely on Schnorr signatures.


P2TR outputs have a script that always starts with OP_1. That script may or may not commit to a tapscript.


You know what I mean, there's no clever on-chain reward script.


Interesting

I guess it would be "trivial" to have a bounty on each of the future numbers, since you could encrypt a bitcoin private key with it (it would probably make sense to do RSA -> AES key that encodes the BTC private key)


Just to confirm: these puzzles are unrelated to RSA, correct?


rsa is prime factorization, bitcoin is elliptic curve ps: elliptic curve or breaking sha256 "bitmixing"


If you've already paid for and reserved a whole cluster of GPUs, any idle capacity is capacity you've already paid for. Using it is effectively free. So might as well use it to solve fun math puzzles.

Though, it would make more financial sense to mine crypto.


> it would make more financial sense to mine crypto

GPUs are power-inefficient for mining most crypto so not necessarily. You may end up paying more in electricity than you are able to mine.

Most crypto mining is on ASICs now.


You missed the part where they have already pre-paid for the GPU-hours and they pay the same regardless of he electricity used.

Also, even if they were paying for electricity, they would lose less money mining crypto than factoring RSA numbers.


Except for the prize money for the RSA challenge contest! Although they'll also need to have Claude invent a time machine.


Is someone providing prize money again? RSA ended the contest in 2007.


Hence the time machine!


Only if you pay a flat rate for electricity and cooling.


But Anthropic isn't paying for the electricity and cooling. They don't run their own data centers, they rent compute from providers who cover those costs.

That's entirely why they can blow compute on the fun projects like this. If they had to pay extra for the electricity, they wouldn't do it.


But training LLM's is also a task one can do whenever you have a spare GPU-minutes.

I wonder why they don't have some kind of scheduler which makes sure there are never any idle minutes. One would imagine they at least would have autoscaling on their production serving workload and use the freed compute capacity for model training for example.


I doubt they're inferencing on their training hardware


Is the electricity cost far greater than the marketing value?


The first is a physical quantity that can be written down.

The second is approximately no better than astrology.


The second point is, sadly, true of quite a lot of aspects of software, including "design" and "quality"


The marginal electricity cost is zero.


Or specifically, electricity was already paid for with the pre-paid capacity.

Not using it would not save them any money, they already paid for it.


I was thinking if they owned their own data centers, how expensive might this project have been.


Most of the GPU cost is in the GPUs themselves (and in the space and maintenance costs of the building). Electricity is a small fraction, and it's not like datacenters are just going to shut down their servers when they're not in use.

There is cost, but the cost is mostly the opportunity cost of not being able to do something else.


> Electricity is a small fraction, and it's not like datacenters are just going to shut down their servers when they're not in use.

I don't have any insight on modern GPU datacenters, but in decades past, some owned and operated datacenters didn put effort into making sure power management worked because the cost savings were worth it. I'm pretty sure I saw plans to shed load and power off servers if a utility made a demand response request or in case of loss of cooling. I wouldn't be surprised if some owned and operated data centers do regular full shutdowns at off peak... WOL, IPMI or RTC wakeup can bring them back when needed and if you already have a dynamic service orchestrator and setup times are acceptable, why not shut down if there's no actual priority work and there's also no idle priority opportunistic load either...


I've never heard of anybody shitting a DC down off peak. Been around 30yr or so.

> why not shut down if there's no actual priority work and there's also no idle priority opportunistic load either...

Full shutdown and startup often kills capacitors and used to be dangerous for rotational HDD.

Sometimes once you turn things off, they simply don't come back on. It happens.


Lol *shutting, sorry


No one does this. There is zero value, economic or otherwise, in turning off machines.


How much crypto do you think the mentioned 30 GPU years would have produced at current exchange rates? They're not as efficient as ASICs but GPU's can still mine a lot...


wouldn't even cover the cost of power and cooling otherwise everyone would still be doin it


Except you can do it with CPUs as well for much cheaper.


Internal leaks, these happen frequently. Employees have access to these devices for months prior to launch. Someone ran a benchmark and uploaded it on a machine they weren't supposed to.


I find that hard to believe at Apple. Not even possible that it’s accidental. They have their own internal tools, all packets leaving the network will be interrogated, leaking data is a sackable offence… if it’s in the geekbench database then it’s there because they put it there.


> Not even possible that it’s accidental. They have their own internal tools, all packets leaving the network will be interrogated, leaking data is a sackable offence

This is a story that folks like to tell, but it's not really how things work - at least since they stopped letting Steve Jobs lock all his engineers in the conference venue.

Leaks are a sackable offence at every tech firm, deep packet inspection firewalls are used all over the place, information leaks like this still happen pretty much every single product cycle.


People love to tell stories about how stuff is done at Apple, which are often utter bullshit.

Not to mention that Apple has a huge number of teams, and no absolute standards across them. People would be shocked at the things Apple DOESN'T do.

Then again, with the current state of their QA, I think it's becoming clear what Apple doesn't do much of anymore.


The details of the Apple vs. OpenAI dispute over leaked data show their security is not quite that tight.


Just recently there was the OpenAI vs Apple trial, where it came out that employees that left the company still had access to their internal net, sooo super plausible


+1 . The only case it is allowed is Apple's own marketing team.


It’s happened in the past. Like that employee who left the unreleased iPhone in a bar by accident.


> I find that hard to believe at Apple

Where does the myth of Apple come from? You should go on blind and ask someone that works there the reality lolol


You think they need geekbench to verify how fast their chips run?


No I think Apple employees run geekbench for fun and don't care the stats get uploaded (you know just like other normal careless humans rather than demigods)


These have leaked pretty much every single year for the M-series chips, a few weeks before launch. Occasionally for the A-series.


No, not the same. Those are review samples who got sent the product early. Those "leaks" happen AFTER the products have been officially announced by Apple.

Apple has not mentioned M6 Pro anywhere.


Not accurate, both leak very frequently.

Leaked prior to launch - Leaked Benchmarks Confirm M2 Chip is Up to 20% Faster Than M1 https://www.macrumors.com/2022/06/15/m2-geekbench-benchmark/

Leaked prior to announcement - 'M2 Max' Geekbench Scores Leak Online, Revealing Rumored Specs and Performance https://www.macrumors.com/2022/11/30/m2-max-chip-geekbench-r...

Leaked prior to launch - M3 Max Chip Around as Fast as M2 Ultra in Early Benchmark Results https://www.macrumors.com/2023/11/01/m3-max-chip-benchmark-r...

Leaked prior to announcement - Mac M4 Chip Performance Unveiled in First Benchmarks https://www.macrumors.com/2024/10/07/m4-mac-chip-benchmarks/

Leaked prior to launch - M5 Chip Achieves Impressive Feat in 14-Inch MacBook Pro Speed Test https://www.macrumors.com/2025/10/17/m5-chip-macbook-pro-gee...

Leaked prior to launch - Apple's M5 Max Chip Achieves a New Record in First Benchmark Result

https://www.macrumors.com/2026/03/05/m5-max-geekbench-benchm...

Then add this one to the list.


Incorrect.

  Leaked prior to announcement - Leaked Benchmarks Confirm M2 Chip is Up to 20% Faster Than M1 https://www.macrumors.com/2022/06/15/m2-geekbench-benchmark/
Date of article: June 15, 2022 10:32 am PDT. M2 announcement was June 6.[0]

I don't feel like doing it for your other sources. They follow the same pattern. You can check official announcement dates vs "leaked" dates yourself.

[0]https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2022/06/apple-unveils-m2-with...


That was a mistake and I updated it - only the M2 Max benchmarks leaked prior to announcement, not the M2.

Those M2 Max Geekbench benchmarks appeared on November 30, 2022. Apple announced the Apple M2 Max chip on January 17, 2023.

Similarly, those M4 Geekbench benchmarks for Mac were leaked on October 6, 2024, prior to Apple announcing the product. Apple announced the M4 Macs on October 28, 2024.


Leak'em right in the eyes!


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