False dichotomy: I don't trust any of them. The current AI frontrunners are primarily distinguished by being the ones who were able to raise the most capital, and they hang out in similar circles to Sam Bankman-Fried.

Posting this two days before earnings seems to indicate that there is going to be some bad capex news.

Ya dont say.

Negative Free Cash Flow are the words every one on HN needs to learn.

Every thing before now, you will look back upon as the happy time. When every year storage, ram and compute grew and the prices went down. Your cloud provider made so much money they paid cash for hardware.

Now they borrow at 8% and net margins on ram/storage were around $0.10/GB ... today they sit at over a dollar. (SEE micron's s10's if you want to check the math on that).

Forget circular financing, its a circular firing squad because your going to have to figure out where the hell your going to run any of your gear.

4x to 10x for ram +8% for financing +30percent AWS margins. Good luck everyone its gonna get rough out there.

Or hyperscalers revenue will continue to disappoint, there is no $60 trillion market for ai and there will be a glut of capacity for years to come!

The capital (heh) mistake in the whole assumption that these companies are worth that much is that they'll crash the economy in their zeal to get there. And when the economy goes down the drain so do the expenditures because in the end the companies that could spend money on AI are taking that money out of the economy to put it in the pockets of a tiny fraction of society. You can only do that if you are willing to leave the rest without food on the table and that sort of move is simply not very wise.

Yeah that's not going to happen. They will take a page from the DRAM manufacturers and fix prices. And they will get away with it too.

There is definitely a $60 trillion market for AI, just not by next year.

-10B on VR, -(The Compny's Future) on AI

"Whataboutism" is a fake newspeak word that was invented by hawkish foreign policy think tanks to rebutt their own hypocrisy. Despite attempts to retcon it back to the cold war, it mostly didn't exist as a term until the 2010s. And yes, this is posted by a green account. Go kvetch about it.

Actually, it's day 228 of the "4-Day Special Combat Operation to De-Islamify Iran"™.

Having to make an API call to run your mission-critical robot seems like a non-starter.

Yeah, it’s surprising that this is the runtime model they went with as opposed to a hybrid edge/cloud model. I’d love to see a system 1 on edge, system 2 on cloud offering. They’re likely the best positioned to do this.

I agree, but isn‘t it basically impossible to do any kind of IP protection for LLMs, if someone dumps the disk or RAM - they have your weights.

I wonder how the cloud players get around this, maybe Antrophic trusts AWS and Google not to look, but do they really just trust Musk?

Bring your weights in an AWS-snowball-like briefcase with an armed guard handcuffed to it.