first time? Welcome to the irrational SV investor world. Its about hype, perception, politics, perceived future returns, not actual market fit and the proven viability of a technology. Its pets.com, myspace, and NVIDIA pumps because people want to 10x the money now.
Everyone and their dog has been saying its a bubble, there is no moat, this is all known techniques being scaled (very inefficiently) onto increasingly expensive hardware clusters at exponential cost, etc.
this is the key. Of course, investor-owned utilities will try to charge as much as they can to maximize return on capital. The major question is "do we want to maximize return on capital in our utilities?". I would argue the answer is no since providing utilities is a public good and facilitates all other activities in the society, and forms natural monopolies.
Reframing "talking through the problem", "taking notes", and "sketching the problem" as "Chain of thought". Its interesting, I wonder if people did the same reverse anthropomorphizing of their own characteristics in the era when we conceptualized the brain as water in tubes or clockwork?
I suppose this is where "gears turning" and "screw loose" come from, vestiges of that time. It will be interesting once we emerge from our current attention sequence model fever dream what vestiges leave a lasting imprint in the parlance.
this isn't an unexpected take from someone who is rich and famous for being a "math explainer". If you make your living explaining other people's proofs, then it makes sense to say "don't worry about _how_ the math gets done, you can still explain it, or supervise it." It will be interesting to see how he would react if his channel was overtaken by AI that was RL trained to produce 3b1b content, and produced better content than him, at a faster pace, so he lost his viewership. Then would he be satisfied with: "ok but now you can oversee a machine to make your videos, its not like 'making explainer videos' is inherently meaningful".
Same with programmers. The craftsmen feel the hit, the people that just saw it as a job and/or code as an obstacle to making a product say "what's the big deal, code was just a tool all along".
The end state is that more and more activity will consolidate to fewer controllers because of capital costs. Eventually the "makers" will be outcompeted by the few companies holding all the robots / AI swarms (at which point the other crabs in the bucket will say "told you so"). Sure you could create a startup, at which point your idea is instantly replicated (assuming it wasn't already thought of by millions of agents). Then you're merely facing the huge marketing, name recognition, and production ability of the megacorp versus your one unknown idea for the "factory" you "manage".
That's what's missing from the "factory manager" discussion -- how well can you compete with a Toyota factory? You're free to create your own factory right now. And just wait for the regulatory capture...
And when you think, how do you know which word will appear next in your mind? Or does your system 2 thinking seem to emerge as a spontaneous stream of words/thoughts?
I actually think that AI has little to do with the brain / human intelligence, but in this regard, human thinking is also spontaneous, where the next thought just seems to emerge from the combined effect of all inputs to your brain (including the memory of recent thoughts).
The good news about this navigation is that the best course for almost any journey is just "straight line", with a minor deviation here and there. Its funny, but due to the emptyiness of space, even in our solar system, if you just pick a random direction, you likely won't hit anything. Trace a line to pluto from earth, and its clear 99.99999...% of the time if its not behind the sun. So the mentats maybe don't have such a tough job :)
I can make up a plausible sci-fi explanation for the need easily: the folded space might not look like our almost euclidean geometry. Maybe in folded space masses take volume proportional to the mass.
Could even envision it in some future film. E.g. when NCC-1701-N goes to warp in addition to the blur effect all the stars swell up.
It actually gets the effects of relativity backwards: stars would change in shape from circles to ovals, squishing in the direction of travel near c.
What happens for V>c is of course undefined, and practically speaking, turning dots of light into even-skinnier dots of light would be boring AF to watch, so space travel in visual media ALWAYS does the stretchy-thing.
Interstellar travel is a bit more difficult than that, and doing it at FTL speeds is presumably more difficult still.
But that’s not really important. Science fiction is allowed to make things up that aren’t perfectly realistic. Campbell surmised that a good science fiction author would pick just one unrealistic thing, such as FTL space travel, for every story, and the reader would oblige by suspending their disbelief. Frank Herbert might have stretched that a bit but I still think he wrote a good story. I don’t hold it against him.
I agree with lostmsu's point here that "folding space" is not as literal as you're interpreting it. "Folding" and "Navigation" is a metaphor some sort of extra-dimensional or non-euclidian operation that enables space travel. What it entails exactly eludes our perception.
Assuming the NASDAQ / S&P aren't gamed into listing these at offering price to game the system into putting ~10% of people's retirement into a junk stock on day 1.
"Buy the index" isn't a solution for human influence and corruption, there are people in control of what goes into the index too.
Haha, that's a good one. Perhaps we should coin a new phrase: "dog shitting", where a company eats its own dog shit before inflicting it on their users. :)
Did you hear the stats on the claude code leak? there were multi-thousand line for loops with hundreds of conditional / if statements written in typescript. Its insanely difficult to decipher. At this point "mess that only AI can understand" is what they have and must continue building upon.
Also, we don’t know how many billions of dollars was spent on making it work. They are running 1000s of agents against their codebase 24/7, and still only producing what they’ve put out so far.
It might be fully automated and eventually the agents figure out all of the bugs, but I suspect the costs are so large that no sane company would ever write code this way, and probably WAAAY more expensive than just hiring humans to write and test it.
Everyone and their dog has been saying its a bubble, there is no moat, this is all known techniques being scaled (very inefficiently) onto increasingly expensive hardware clusters at exponential cost, etc.
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