> Competition increases, margins decrease, baseline minimal standard of quality for success increases.
Except cinema tickets prices got raised, if we were still talking about Hollywood and its entertainment industry.
> Valheim [1] is a game that was made mostly by one guy, at first at least. Not that long ago, this would have been a multi million dollar game produced by a wide array of people.
Quoting outliers and exceptions is not supporting your argument. Concurrently, a lot of people figured they are super shrewd and will make AI-generated games and guess what, barely anyone buys them. There are social and taste factors in art. It's not a chart with a line climbing up. A lot of normal folk, myself included, see AI-generated entertainment as low-effort and a plot to get their money while the other guy is snoring and is having 2x RTX 5090's make him money in his sleep.
People don't like that. They don't have to be proficient in IT to see what's going on and to dislike it.
> The future we're moving into isn't going to be the same but more efficient for those on top.
Yes. That is what your parent comments are saying -- that they are not seeing the common folk get too many benefits (if any) when the dust settles, which it still has not. They/we are saying: it's going to get objectively and measurably better only for the richest class.
> That efficiency is going to revolutionize the economy in ways that are probably impossible to see from a distant, much how somebody living in an agrarian society couldn't have even begun to imagine the 'real' impact of the Industrial Revolution.
The only thing at this point that is likely being revolutionized is our cooking skills because we should learn to cook rats and roaches -- because those on top care not about you and me. No, scratch that. They care. But they want us gone.
Almost nobody wants human workers per se, they just don't have a choice. The LLM era shows this acutely and clearly; many businesses rushed to fire people BEFORE they had proof LLMs will get their work done at all. The social and economic aspects of "nobody wants human workers" have been there forever but it was accepted as a necessary evil.
Now, many capital holders have an excuse _and_ a tool to want less -- or zero -- human workers. We are currently living in this boiling pot and your vaguely optimistic comment does not line with the reality I am observing.
Maybe, historically speaking / era-wise, i.e. 50-ish years from now, everything will be alright, a new equilibrium will have been reached and the humanity will be objectively happier generally and per-capita.
That will not comfort a talented VFX artist, a programmer, a sysadmin, a lawyer, and many others, when they have to get their half-paid house confiscated and go live in shanty towns and form a gypsy-like society so they can survive at all.
"Historically..." arguments are boring. What happens _now_? How is society and economy and the rich class handling the turbulent changes in the last 2 years? How will they handle them in the next 5 years?
That's what a good amount of people are doing, including in the Elixir ecosystem (where Jose Valim, the author of OP, mainly resides): build graph/vector DB-based code indexers and finders. LLMs seem to deal with those well and take less turns to give an answer or even find and address a smell.
We also need a metric ton of opinionated linting to sheep-herd codebases into a smaller amount of possible shapes -- which I'm strongly in favor of and see it as the next iteration (of the concept of a single code formatter a la Rust) because it'll put many other bikeshedding time-wasters to rest, hopefully forever.
To be honest though, it's mostly hypotheses and feelings; nobody has truly figured it out yet -- and if some have, they're keeping the secret sauce to themselves.
Some of us are stuck on subscriptions and our executives will never give us API access.
But also, everyone says "it's the harness" and almost nobody ever gives good examples, it gets a bit tiring to read everywhere, as if everyone wants to sell a harness to us.
> But perhaps the story is more about consumers who just want new, exciting things like weird door handles and 30 inches of screens
We should never underestimate people's weird desires but this is mostly not it IMO. There was a new generation that felt the need to rebel against old established stuff and of course is now painfully rediscovering why this stuff was established in the first place.
Infuriating to watch, mind you. But also predictable, like watching bots play StarCraft against each other.
Yeah, exactly my experience. Especially ever since Fable came out, I felt paralysed, many times, about how many decisions I have to hand it. Which is 10x harder when you handed it the reins to build the PR and you practically only knew the compressed initial problem statement. Then it stands up a draft PR and says: "Decisions you owe me: [insert bulleted list with 8 items each a paragraph long]" and you are like: "...oh shit".
It becomes a very heavy and difficult exercise of it walking you through the implementation and the judgment calls it had to make along the way. VERY exhausting.
There's a silver lining though: you do get to gradually clarify a proto project spec and various requirements, but boy does it take time and energy to re-contextualise when the bot tells you that you should make decisions.
Just last two weeks I had to slap Fable, three times, to stop writing 1000-2000 lines of defensive code... because of DB columns I just forgot should be NOT NULL. That was it. Nothing else. I told it that, boom, -4800 coding lines: gone.
LLMs defend the status quo and they regularly lose sight of everything bigger than the current PR they are working on.
I too am gradually making peace with the fact that LLM-maintained code does not have to be 100% readable for humans.
But this is not about readability. It's about the data model. So one concession I am willing to make is: don't care too much about the code _BUT_ manually curate the data model. So far: small wins on iteration turns and code volume producing. Too early to tell but for now I am happy with the results.
What do the EU investors do outside of demanding guaranteed profit with zero risk for them? How many are ready to absorb 10-30 years of new infrastructure investments and play the long game?
If the EU wants to compete, well, here's the global market, right that way. ==>
Get to it. Nobody is actually stopping you.
But if you have no appetite for risk, don't complain when one day you realize you don't have EU alternatives.
Except cinema tickets prices got raised, if we were still talking about Hollywood and its entertainment industry.
> Valheim [1] is a game that was made mostly by one guy, at first at least. Not that long ago, this would have been a multi million dollar game produced by a wide array of people.
Quoting outliers and exceptions is not supporting your argument. Concurrently, a lot of people figured they are super shrewd and will make AI-generated games and guess what, barely anyone buys them. There are social and taste factors in art. It's not a chart with a line climbing up. A lot of normal folk, myself included, see AI-generated entertainment as low-effort and a plot to get their money while the other guy is snoring and is having 2x RTX 5090's make him money in his sleep.
People don't like that. They don't have to be proficient in IT to see what's going on and to dislike it.
> The future we're moving into isn't going to be the same but more efficient for those on top.
Yes. That is what your parent comments are saying -- that they are not seeing the common folk get too many benefits (if any) when the dust settles, which it still has not. They/we are saying: it's going to get objectively and measurably better only for the richest class.
> That efficiency is going to revolutionize the economy in ways that are probably impossible to see from a distant, much how somebody living in an agrarian society couldn't have even begun to imagine the 'real' impact of the Industrial Revolution.
The only thing at this point that is likely being revolutionized is our cooking skills because we should learn to cook rats and roaches -- because those on top care not about you and me. No, scratch that. They care. But they want us gone.
Almost nobody wants human workers per se, they just don't have a choice. The LLM era shows this acutely and clearly; many businesses rushed to fire people BEFORE they had proof LLMs will get their work done at all. The social and economic aspects of "nobody wants human workers" have been there forever but it was accepted as a necessary evil.
Now, many capital holders have an excuse _and_ a tool to want less -- or zero -- human workers. We are currently living in this boiling pot and your vaguely optimistic comment does not line with the reality I am observing.
Maybe, historically speaking / era-wise, i.e. 50-ish years from now, everything will be alright, a new equilibrium will have been reached and the humanity will be objectively happier generally and per-capita.
That will not comfort a talented VFX artist, a programmer, a sysadmin, a lawyer, and many others, when they have to get their half-paid house confiscated and go live in shanty towns and form a gypsy-like society so they can survive at all.
"Historically..." arguments are boring. What happens _now_? How is society and economy and the rich class handling the turbulent changes in the last 2 years? How will they handle them in the next 5 years?
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