I'm increasingly of the opinion that stuff like Jev and this are overfitting and producing illusory but confident "probabilities" that are complete bullshit. You can't see the underlying reasoning... but it's incredibly tempting for people who want to place faith in them. Rather than even trying to understand the complex system at play, it's easy to give up on trying to find reason, and just accept the second- or third-tier outputs of massively complex things that, on the first tier, are not necessarily reliable sources of truth.
Let's give an example: Suppose you ran a Jev that tried to determine when another Jev was wrong about something ...baseball games, let's say. The second Jev would come up with a perfect list of when the first Jev was wrong and when not to believe it. So now you have a second-order system that you believe more than the first-order one.
Only after 100 baseball games, the second-order Jev is only as good as the first one, it just inverted a bunch of games that could have gone either way. So hell, you make a third-order Jev that analyzes the first two...and its results are AMAZING when you look at the historical record! Only, you know, that's what's called overfitting.
Honestly, [edit: Fuck, I just wrote "honestly". I've been brain damaged by you-know-who] the invention of the "noul" is a bit of a giveaway. Imagine what junk bond traders could've done with that in the '80s. Not-not-not-falsy is how we all like our stock picks served up, right?
Reading the raw statistical output of an LLM as if it were an oracular source of truth is literally idol worship and gambling in the purest sense.
Take it from a guy who lost $10k on baseball this season having Claude rewrite my original code to reverse and re-reverse underdogs and favorites; there is no fucking "probability" of anything coming out of an LLM, even if your source of truth isn't an LLM but an evolutionary algorithm you designed yourself. Which would've performed better before the LLM started interpreting ways to bucket it and make up bullshit probabilities around it.
Anyone going down the Jev path is deeply misguided, but will see the light once they realize they have re-invented the magic 8 ball. Or that executive decision maker cube from the 80s with 6 random answers.
Here's your Jev. Note the preponderance of nouls ;)
If you happen to gamble or just watch baseball, you'll see that reality is not so easily reduced to one number. On the most basic level, a single probability number leaves out volatility, without which it's utterly useless for predicting anything other than a sequence it's already trained and fitted for. But as a gambling addict and occasional patron of oracles and gurus, it's very easy and tempting to mistake a clear-cut "probably" for whatever you want to hear. Listening to an LLM's heartbeat for probabilities is just a gambler's fallacy taken out to the 19th degree.
Yes, Jev is calibrated "from factory" on a bunch of tasks, but we can be almost sure our own bespoke tasks are not covered. So the model does not really know how to produce calibrated confidence scores.
What it would need is a calibration dataset on which to align. There is no calibration in the abstract, only relative to a set of test examples. A model with an uncalibrated output probability can be recalibrated using conformal prediction. You run the model over your calibration examples, get the probabilities.
Assume the new example's answer is y, and calculate its nonconformity score, higher means a worse fit. Count how many calibration examples have a score at least as high as that. Add one to this count, then divide by the total number of calibration examples plus one.
I can tell you though, I'm not alone... a completely degenerate cokehead at my local bar just showed me a baseball prediction app he had Claude build for him on his phone, which looked suspiciously similar to mine. (Mine might be hand coded and backed by a symbolic regression A-Life engine I've been working on since 2005, but so what? Claude has helped me flip most of the predictions for various reasons, to equal "success"). Crude, and yet his app somehow included wind direction forecasts for each inning of every game. This guy is smart as a punter but has probably never used a computer for anything in his life beyond downloading STD test results.
>> Claude appears to be the first to notice the system’s defining features—an associated array of non-coding DNA sequences and an additional accessory protein of unknown function
In Claude-speak: "You've hit the nail on the head. The DNA does not code, but acts exactly like an associative array. To be honest, the actual protein in question has an unknown function. But you're definitely onto something!"
Rarely commented upon: It was Windows, with its horrific mess of user settings and sub-settings panels dating back decades, which introduced the idea of just typing in what setting you were looking for and pulling up a list of relevant panels. That was...kind of smart? If you're not going to actually go through and optimize everything? And then MacOS copied it, VSCode copied it... it became the default way to find whatever you were looking for. Need to fix the way your trackpad is working? Here: Instead of spending an hour digging through the mouse and input and keyboard and trackpad and accessibility and all the drivers for everything you own, just type in "speed". Okay, better.
The problem is that this doesn't really fix the underlying issue, which is the bozo explosion of footguns in the UI itself. In fact, it just papers over all the problems.
A good UI needs to be opinionated. And also, getting rid of cruft is at least if not more important than building any new feature.
This happened earlier, with various power-user programs that had hundreds of settings leading the charge. I think TOAD for Oracle had this feature back in the 00s. Or does `grep .vimrc` count, perhaps?
No, a good developer needs to anticipate the needs of the user. The ones they didn't even imagine. And then fix the system and take out all the garbage.
Maybe, the correct approach is not 'predict everything' and not 'have users tell you what they need', but something more akin to:
1. have defaults
2. have ways to change defaults
3. have dev actually have an interest in the actual workflow, because while you can anticipate a lot, real use case will carry the day
I played with a 'sound editing software via prompt' the other day, and there was still crazy how much distance there was between 'what i think i want' vs 'what i actually apparently want'.
ONLY a narcissist? Are you sure? Do you... perhaps... always consider yourself sure?
What about maybe like, a developer who actually talks constantly to their users and spends half the day emailing with them 7 days a week? Would that person maybe not be a narcissist and still be in touch with what their users need? Maybe even capable of anticipating a majority of their needs?
Just a throwaway kinda funny story that's obliquely related to this. I'm not a pollster, I'm a developer. I was tasked maybe 10 years ago with creating a feedback survey that a hospitality company wanted to email to customers after their visit. It was a mix of yes/no, rate 1-5, and free writing questions, all optional.
The responses got stored in a database, as well as being emailed raw to the relevant managers. The numerical responses could be quantified and tracked over time, but there was pretty much no standard of measurement for the hundreds of thousands or millions of free writing boxes over the years.
A year ago I set up a small locally run classifier model to back test and "score" all that stuff, and to try to reveal patterns that might have been hidden.
The classifier did turn up a bunch of sets of complaints that had been overlooked by upper management. But even more so, it flooded the company with false positives of negative reviews.
It turns out that a lot of positive reviews include false-negative idiomatic expressions like "killer service" or "it beat the shit out of staying at...", which the classifier considered extremely negative.
Just a warning to anyone who thinks LLMs will help clarify the user's intent... they won't. This really makes me ponder the value of putting faith into the voodoo of the LLM's probability metrics, a la Jev. I think you may just be betting on a derivative of a fundamentally broken system, where trusting some early underlying abilities leads you to lean on a confidently presented but ultimate unsupported probability number you want to bet on, but which has no mathematical relationship to any real probability.
The bit about 10% of respondents claiming they had visited the International Space Station was funny. Reminded me of this nugget[0], which for people unfamiliar with the subject doesn't mean that 20% of Jews believe in Jesus... it means that 20% of the respondents to the poll were either deranged or confused, and self-identity as Jewish for no clear reason. It's analogous to "1 in 5 vegans say they eat meat."
Righht, which is about as accurate as checking the box that you're Native American because your grandpa said you might be 1/16th Cherokee.
Assuming an identity doesn't make it your culture, right? It says more about the person who assumes it. Messianic Jews are a form of bonkers identitarians who existed even before the current fad.
No, there's no quotient of Jewish people who would take the question of belief in Christ to mean "do you believe Jesus was an historical person who walked around Samaria in sandals". Pretty much all Jews agree that Jesus was a real renegade rabbi who wore shoddy footwear. The definition of being Jewish is that you don't believe he was the Messiah, because the Messiah hasn't arrived yet. Anyone who clicks the buttons that they're Jewish and that they believe in the divinity of Jesus is clearly a throwaway on the survey.
Movies and TV tell me everyone in Judea and Samaria wore sandals back then. Why single out one guy? Or was Jesus's pair particularly scuffed, ratty, and worn-out?
Something like 290 people have visited the ISS. If they all answered the survey and if the survey size was around 2900, then the 10% figure would be correct.
It's not as if best practices aren't well documented, or as if CVEs don't come out every day, or as if the information is somehow unavailable to even the most junior devs to take basic security measures.
Not all hacks are caused by pure negligence, laziness or stupidity, but most of them are. Even a little effort goes a long way.
My grandfather spent a couple decades as a builder, ran a construction crew. Whatever the project was, he wanted to know everyone he hired personally was going to reinforce and report to him anything they had the slightest doubt about. "Always hammer in an extra nail" was basically his motto.
What we do ain't that different. The difference is that when an apartment building collapses, it's bigger news than when a govenrment database does.
This makes me think of something I hate about how LLMs write CLI scripts. Even with the same model on the same day, there's never any consistency with the way CLI arguments are written or handled. Sometimes they want to split on an equal sign, and specifically write that into the code. Other times they write code to pair keys and values based on spacing and order, even and odd.
--date=2026-09-16
--date 20260916
and all variations thereof. It's annoying enough to have to check which script expects what format that I probably should've wasted some time or tokens to align them all, or at least put it into an MD file. But it's just an illustration of how LLMs can make CLI commands more obscure than they need to be.
Not exactly programming tricks, but there's also stuff you just recognize quickly because it's a pattern you've encountered before. Like yesterday I had to diagnose a bug where some newly deployed and barely tested software hung while generating a gift certificate. Customer's name was O'Brien. Anyone wanna guess the bug?
I'm not sure if you've looked around recently, but neither the Law nor fear of the Lord are exactly dominant features of 21st Century global civilization.
I'm not speaking against the concept. But you could make a strong case that the groups most bound to that vision of the future are the extremists from the three Abrahamic religions, to whom life is to some greater or lesser extent disposable in service of "wholehearted conversion".
One brought Law, one brought Salvation, and one brought Submission. The notion of monotheism was to destroy the old pagan gods and the wickedness that came wrapped in "superstition". We're back in the superstitious era. And in a superstitious era, conversion takes on the form conquest and in many cases murder and dehumanization. One has to be a zealot to believe that there is a God who wants humanity to follow certain mandates and rituals. The question you leave open is whether zealotry is justified, and I don't think you sufficiently answered that.
As a non extremist believer, in the sense of believing extremely but not passionate about influencing others’ decisions, life is not disposable in service, “in service” is an available disposition for life. Take what you want of my statement, as I did of yours.
I get that. I'm Jewish. While I'm not an extreme believer, I believe in the framework for human life and dignity that the Torah creates. That Law isn't simply reducible to a "fear of God"; it's a living thing and a toolkit that teaches one generation after another methods to take wisdom and grounding from it and to seek something more, including the paths of rebels like Jesus and agnostics like Einstein.
We don't try to convert people, or even get them to understand. What other people think isn't our responsibility. It's generally not "you must use these tools this way or you're wrong". It's "here's what we got from this".
However, there is a fluctuating source of zealotry and revivalism in our own community that has parallels in Islam and in Christianity. The idea is a very ancient Israelite one, a desert religion tribal idea: There's one God and He's on Your Side. Everyone else is apostate, pagan. This took root way before there were Christian or Muslim concepts of Hell or Heaven. You don't even need those things to condemn other people. There is judgment in Judaism, it's just not generally on the level of converting or killing people who disagree with the beliefs.
I'd submit that more people should be bothered by it if they have the idea that their belief is the only right one.
Zealots will zealot. That is less of a religion issue and more a societal one. People will find something to be fanatical about and religion is the perfect candidate for that, the distance between belief and fanaticism is the easiest to cross. While it’s worth the while to fight extremism, this is more of a maintenance than a completion exercise. With the challenges of our times, as different as we may perceive them, this may be a tough exercise and not necessarily one where focusing on “fixing”religion is the most promising path. The happy times of prosperity and atheism were also the best times to be in a religion. I think the most promising path is to help people not need a God that saves them from the challenges of their day to day lives.
Sure, but what's nice about it is that you don't have to take it all literally. You can take the metaphors, and some of the prescriptions as to how to behave or to best deal with some situations.
That's sort of what a lot of other religions are missing. The idea that it's not literal.
>One has to be a zealot to believe that there is a God who wants humanity to follow certain mandates and rituals.
There's a selection bias: the religions that survive today are the ones that had a reproductive advantage relative to other cultures. Natural selection applies to culture just like it does to genes. The same will hold in future as currently only the zealots have birthrates above replacement; the more secular people are, the fewer children they have, so the future belongs to the ones who believe God mandates they marry and multiply.
You're right, but the religious retort to that would be that secular people are miserable and therefore less likely to marry and reproduce. Whereas I'm not sure why that should be true. Sure, secular people don't have a command to reproduce, so maybe taking away the command structure just reduces the likelihood; and I guess that's the selection bias you're talking about. But prior to organized religion, people were reproducing like rabbits, so there's got to be something else.
In many countries now, "over the replacement rate" or "under the replacement rate" is indeed a binary that closely tracks with religious observance. I would rather not out where I am, but here a couple having even a second child will cause some observers to at least ask if the family is part of a sect.
Didn't most religions allow slavery? Islam, Christians, Jews, Hindus... All had rules on how to treat your slave but never printed slavery should be abolished. Funny how no major religion allows slavery any more isn't it
Christianity has no rules on how to treat slaves other than one or two sentences in the epistles of Paul telling people to be kind, and another encouraging freeing slaves.
This is far form endorsing slavery. it was regarded as a necessity for society to function at the time. It is rather like how Christians now often accept the accumulation of wealth that is inevitable in a capitalist society as better than the alternatives. St Paul also said slaves (and women, and people of different races) were equal before God ( Galatians 3:28 ).
The Bible has rules about how to treat slaves, but from a Christian point of view these did not apply - they are Jewish law similar to not eating pork or requiring circumcision etc.
Christianity was the main motivation behind abolishing slavery and we have written records of Christians calling for slavery to be abolished going back to the 4th century.
> But you could make a strong case that the groups most bound to that vision of the future are the extremists from the three Abrahamic religions, to whom life is to some greater or lesser extent disposable in service of "wholehearted conversion".
I'm not a religious person but your message is very misleading and unfair to christians. Seriously: in the last 100 years how many terror attacks have been committed in the name of the christian god?
Even if, in the past, we've had stuff like the crusades and the dark ages it's hard to deny that Jesus brings a message of peace and forgiveness.
Save from a very few incidents with rare extremist christians fighting against abortion, the worst we've seen from christians are basically "people praying in their head in front of abortion clinics" (and the UK arrested christians for doing so btw: you're not free to "pray in your head" in front of an abortion clinic in the UK anymore).
While we could talk about tens of thousands of deaths in terror attacks from religious cracknuts who love to kill as many non-believers as possible.
"extremists from the three Abrahamic religions" doesn't hold up to scrutiny when christianity today has something like 0.01% of extremists while another religion, according to the latest published World FactBook from the CIA, has as many as 30% of its followers worldwide approving sharia laws.
> Even if, in the past, we've had stuff like the crusades and the dark ages i
It is interesting that both those examples (which are the "obvious" ones people pick") was really anything like what people imagine then to be like. The "dark ages" were dark in terms of a lack of records in western Europe as the Roman Empire collapsed and the imperial systems disappeared. Many historians argue that life mostly improved for ordinary people, the status of women improved, slavery was replaced by serfdom etc. The crusades started in response to a call for help from people who were being invaded, and were at least partly defensive: at the time they started the Arab Empires had occupied most Spain, most Mediterranean islands, parts of southern Italy, had invaded France etc. While they were not entirely virtuous they were not without reason either.
> While we could talk about tens of thousands of deaths in terror attacks from religious cracknuts who love to kill as many non-believers as possible.
A pretty small proportion of Muslims support religious violence. The extremists exist and are powerful or widely supported in some countries, but its no usual.
> while another religion, according to the latest published World FactBook from the CIA, has as many as 30% of its followers worldwide approving sharia laws.
What do they mean by that? It varies. Survey wording can mean it can even include following rules of personal conduct. It often means religious rulings over religious matters - not very different from Catholic marriage tribunals. Even where people want it to have the force of law, they may want that only for Muslims. While the extremists exist, they are far fewer than 30%. Most of that 30% is concentrated in a few countries, although the fact that some of those countries are very wealthy has meant they can fund the spread of those ideas.
The War on Iraq may not fit the definition of terrorism, being government actions, but it killed a shit load of people and was driven by religious convictions with flimsy or non-existent evidence:
Be honest, please; the arrests were not for "praying in your head" they were for repeatedly breaching a buffer zone and actively refusing a request to move on.
You have not covered anything like all cases these, and the article makes it clear "breaching a buffer zone" was standing silently while praying.
> Poole Magistrates' Court heard the former serviceman had his head bowed and hands clasped outside the British Pregnancy Advisory Service in Ophir Road.
> The court was told he had been praying for his unborn son, who he said died from abortion 22 years ago.
In a declared buffer zone, after announcing he intended to this, and after an hour or more of refusing to move on.
It was deliberate disregard of a buffer zone that applied to all that had no business within the abortion centre, whether he was praying in his head or not we'll never know and it's immaterial to the reason for the arrest.
"in the last 100 years how many terror attacks have been committed in the name of the christian god?"
Depends how you count, the war on terror, that in reality mostly just brought terror to blow up weddings etc. was and is justified as a crusade by certain christian politicians. And quite some other wars had those elements as well, even the Nazis claimed they officially fought in the name of god against the atheist communists (and many did believe that, viewed Hitler as doing god's will).
Apart from that, check out The Lord's Resistance Army
> the Nazis claimed they officially fought in the name of god against the atheist communists.
Not the Christian God. The aim of the Nazis was to replace the Christian ethos. Himmler said they aimed to get rid of the 10 commandments. They invented two religions (neo-paganism and Positive Christianity) as replacements for Christianity. They regarded Christianity as Jewish plot that overthrew the Roman Empire. Their ideal was to return to a pre-Christian European society, and Hitler said Sparta was the historical society closest to Nazi ideals.
> and is justified as a crusade by certain christian politicians
While they might be influential politicians, they are almost all also at odds with mainstream Christianity. There are similar problems with the wikipedia page about Christian terrorists. Most were anti-Catholic (so their enemies included most Christians). Others are "cultural Christians" rather than believers.
The nazis were not a homogeneous block and neo paganism was not invented by them. They also made use of it, but actual neo pagans among the nazis were rare, it was rather marginal and the mainstream was still very christian. Their main believe uniting them was about blood and race.
And they did try to ignore/change the fact that Jesus was jewish and other stuff to help it establish a german identity religion. But I am pretty sure, that the many non nazis in germany fighting for germany did motivate themself by fighting against atheists and for god.
While they did not invent neo-paganism per se, they invented a particular form of it that fit their ideology. They also invented "positive Christianity".
The Nazi leadership and their core followers were very much committed to getting rid of Christianity. Certainly the heretical movement you refer to existed, but mainstream Christianity was not compatible with Nazi ideology . The Catholic church condemned the Nazi ideology as contrary to Christianity (in Mit brennender Sorge) and large numbers of protestants took the risk of condemning the "German Christian movement as heretical (e.g. those who joined the Confessing Church). I do not think the claim that they were "very Christian" is plausible.
Why focus only on big, showy acts of violence? Christian-influenced violence happens countless of times everyday, such as a gay kid getting beat up because some other kids hear their pastor maligning him every week. Christian violence happens every day.
Most Christians from before the early-20th century, would consider your interpretation of Christianity as mostly heretical. They very willingly forced Christianity into anyone who wasn't, as well as into anyone who wasn't of their particular branch.
The text is the same, as is, presumably, the Jesus, so either they had understood it all wrong and current Christians understand it correctly, or the other way around. Which is it?
IMHO, those are two distinct religions. Actual Christianity is the old one. The modern one isn't Christianity, but European Enlightenment in Christian clothing. And yes, the later is much better than the original.
EE also provides Judaism clothing, Buddhist clothing, and other such clothings, which is why it works so well. In fact, it also has a relatively recently developed Islamic clothing, though adoption is still limited. Hopefully it'll expand over time.
Once the EE got going and separated church from state, it also provided the emancipation of Jews[0], on the thesis that individuals transcend groups and have inalienable rights.
From the perspective of a 17th Century Jew or Christian, that project worked to reform and soften both Christianity and Judaism in Europe because both people were prepared to reject extremist beliefs in favor of economic, worldly, material wellbeing. Protestantism and Judaism in particular share certain traits in prioritizing work, science, individualism and success in the corporeal life.
It might be an unpopular idea, but the softening of Christianity was in some way its reunion with Judaism, from being a religion adapted by the Romans to war to a realignment with the more temperate biblical Judaism that Christ was actually teaching. But Christian scripture did have a gentle interpretation inherent to it.
Every European movement which sought to destroy the Enlightenment tried first to roll Jewish emancipation back and then to destroy the Churches, to supplant enlightened Christianity with extremist state religion.
> Most Christians from before the early-20th century, would consider your interpretation of Christianity as mostly heretical.
No they would not. Mainstream Christian belief has not changed in a very long time.
Tell me of any belief the Catholic Church (which more than half of all Christians belong to) currently holds that would have been considered heretical a thousand years ago?
Well, I am pretty sure they would not have made such a statement 1000 years or even 100 years ago
"The Catechism of the Catholic Church emphasizes that all homosexual individuals must "be accepted and treated with respect, compassion, and sensitivity," and that all forms of unjust discrimination should be discouraged and avoided at all cost"
Such a statement could not be made a thousand years ago as it would be utterly anachronistic. The concept of "homosexual individuals" only exists as part of the modern concept of sexual orientation. A thousand years ago people thought in terms of acts, not orientation.
(2) throw a quarter of the world's GDP + all literature ever collected at using the algo to train a NN
(3) throw another quarter of the world's GDP at billions of teraflops for inference, and
(4) aim the resulting world's-largest-computer at marketing itself to investors, for instance by decoding ciphers from obscure medieval manuscripts,
that you could perform some pretty magical tricks. There are other feats humans have performed for less cost, like sending people to the moon, or landing a rocket vertically, or idk, curing Polio.
I'm not knocking the "miraculous" advance here. The unique thing about the solution which makes it particularly non-trivial and something that humans would struggle with was exactly what LLMs excel at: Diffing loads of texts against each other. But the 176k tokens at around $10 doesn't tell the story of the cost. It says a lot about the externalized cost and the amount of money flowing in to support the hardware. If they'd put a $100,000 bounty out to solve that cipher, I think the internet would've solved it in a couple days.
It's funny we're already at the "actually this isn't very impressive" stage when it was a little over a year ago when we were making fun of LLMs for not being able to add numbers.
IC production takes a vast amount of resources and wealth, and it's a known quantity (after all, we've been doing it for decades), but it's still impressive what modern fabs can achieve.
That does not reflect with testing I just did locally. When the option of writing and running scripts was available, Qwen3.8-flash did indeed prefer to just do a physics related calculation via code. But, with a fresh chat and tool access turned off, it did the work on its own and produced correct results. Each step was rounded similar to how a person working by hand might do things, but matched my own hand calculations perfectly.
I found this post hilarious exactly about this the other day:
First, it’s AI can’t multiply 4-digit numbers.
Then it’s AI can only, by brute force, get silver in the IMO with specialized systems.
Then it’s OK, well, now a general-purpose model can get gold, but it’s still just the IMO, it’s for high schoolers.
Then it’s OK, it can solve a few trivial Erdős problems, but only because nobody seriously tried them before, they were low-hanging fruit.
Then it’s OK, a lot of serious mathematicians tried this one, but the result was still obvious in hindsight, it just combined knowledge from a thought-to-be-unrelated field, if any human knew that, they would solve it.
And then to OK, but there are still Millennium Prize Problems.
Then OK well it's just Navier-Stokes wake me up when its the Riemann Hypothesis.
Let's give an example: Suppose you ran a Jev that tried to determine when another Jev was wrong about something ...baseball games, let's say. The second Jev would come up with a perfect list of when the first Jev was wrong and when not to believe it. So now you have a second-order system that you believe more than the first-order one.
Only after 100 baseball games, the second-order Jev is only as good as the first one, it just inverted a bunch of games that could have gone either way. So hell, you make a third-order Jev that analyzes the first two...and its results are AMAZING when you look at the historical record! Only, you know, that's what's called overfitting.
Honestly, [edit: Fuck, I just wrote "honestly". I've been brain damaged by you-know-who] the invention of the "noul" is a bit of a giveaway. Imagine what junk bond traders could've done with that in the '80s. Not-not-not-falsy is how we all like our stock picks served up, right?
Reading the raw statistical output of an LLM as if it were an oracular source of truth is literally idol worship and gambling in the purest sense.
Take it from a guy who lost $10k on baseball this season having Claude rewrite my original code to reverse and re-reverse underdogs and favorites; there is no fucking "probability" of anything coming out of an LLM, even if your source of truth isn't an LLM but an evolutionary algorithm you designed yourself. Which would've performed better before the LLM started interpreting ways to bucket it and make up bullshit probabilities around it.
Anyone going down the Jev path is deeply misguided, but will see the light once they realize they have re-invented the magic 8 ball. Or that executive decision maker cube from the 80s with 6 random answers.
Here's your Jev. Note the preponderance of nouls ;)
https://www.ebay.com/itm/146783842141
If you happen to gamble or just watch baseball, you'll see that reality is not so easily reduced to one number. On the most basic level, a single probability number leaves out volatility, without which it's utterly useless for predicting anything other than a sequence it's already trained and fitted for. But as a gambling addict and occasional patron of oracles and gurus, it's very easy and tempting to mistake a clear-cut "probably" for whatever you want to hear. Listening to an LLM's heartbeat for probabilities is just a gambler's fallacy taken out to the 19th degree.
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