Yes it is a newer business but doesn’t change the fact that models are trending towards a commodity. And that’s a huge problem for the business model on offer.
I don't think the models being a commodity matters much. Consider: Email providers are a commodity. Cloud linux server hosting is a commodity. Checking accounts are a commodity. There's a lot of great businesses, trillion dollar businesses, built on commodities. DeepSeek v7 Pro might open source and be better than any Claude model (unlikely), but JP Morgan and Eli Lilly are not going to go spend $500M on chinese AI tokens routed through OpenCode. They just aren't. The models really matter far, far less than the experience these companies build around the model, and both Anthropic and OpenAI are doing a decent job of making that experience reasonably sticky and compelling.
"trillion dollar businesses, built on commodities"
Which ones? I'm looking at the list of companies with > $1T market cap and none of them have commoditized markets. Instead, they all have huge network effects (Apple), enormous legacy lockin (Broadcom), a religious monarchy (...), or are some of the only people on the planet who can do what they do (nvidia, tsmc).
Mind you, there's lots of _billion_ dollar businesses in commoditized or partially commoditized markets. But Anthropic as a billion dollar business is sunk.
> DeepSeek v7 Pro might open source and be better than any Claude model (unlikely), but JP Morgan and Eli Lilly are not going to go spend $500M on chinese AI tokens routed through OpenCode.
But they might spend them on American inference providers running DeepSeek v7 Pro with ZDR routed through OpenRouter. Or hell, they might just run it themselves like we're already seeing some enterprises do right now.
They might, but I am skeptical of this idea. The story of the past fifteen years in enterprises has been pretty clear: Move things to the cloud, we don't want to manage data centers. There are notable exceptions, but by-and-large that's the trend, and I don't understand why people believe this will suddenly reverse in the era of AI. Running a GPU cluster is substantially harder and more expensive than any other cloud resource. These companies don't even want to run their own Microsoft Exchange servers anymore, and you think they'll want to run an NVL72?
To be clear, I don't like this trend, and I strongly believe most companies are better off owning as much of their technology stack as possible, working with partners to help maintain it rather than making themselves lesser by working with AWS/GCP/Azure; but it is the trend.
Something like Azure Foundry w/ ZDR is more likely. And yeah, its possible that Ant will find competition from those kinds of providers. But Ant will also find revenue from those providers, and its hard to say where things will land in the end.
Right – they can't argue for acceleration factored in their own value, if it's a property of the whole surrounding market.
IMO, US AI providers are not leaders in efficiency anyway, they're still running the original ~2010 playbook that led to LLMs ("What if we took ML researchers' work, but funded it at 50M/yr instead of 250k/yr?").
They're currently arguing for the continuation of that approach: Scale funding first, and the rest will follow. It is high-risk and WeWork-like, by nature.
It's high-risk in that it's proven to not work anymore. Scale isn't a differentiator or won't be in the short term.
Meanwhile, everyone else is working on making these models more useful through a ton of ecosystem around them.
I don't see how the frontier labs will have any control over that to deliver on what investors expect. As mentioned in another post here, if they could, they would already be spawning hundreds of companies to diversify their reach but they aren't, because this era of AI is awesome but still doesn't allow a few individuals to replace millions of others that easily (or efficiently).
Selling subscription productivity tools is a business that has existed for decades if not centuries. Just because their product is new does not mean their business is.
If that was the business, yes. The first rule of understanding the business is understanding the business model. Not the product. If the business model is a subscription, then you look at the moat. If the moat is not there - you are not that much different from Microsoft Office (which arguably has a larger moat).
Its already commoditized. Thats why things like OpenRouter are useful and successful because it lets you route inference at the click of a button between different providers after balancing cost and availability. Exactly how commodities behave.
Agree, except the probabilities for outcomes in the structured output. I don't think you can get those for most frontier LLMs (logprobas). You can get it for open source models but not frontier LLMs.
I've seen them talk about it a bit on Twitter -- it seems to be fairly well-calibrated in general, but obviously you need to test it on your use case and dial it in comparison with known data for best results.
Yup. LLMs can do almost anything. Can they do it at the speed, cost and confidence of a model like Jev is a different story. In Jev output tokens are straight up free because it's not doing text token generations.
People are already used to getting *exactly* what they want from an agent. e.g. in our agent (https://www.definite.app/) we often see people take pictures of a sketch on a piece of paper or a screenshot from a few other tools (Stripe + Excel).
Our agent has templates to start from, but ultimately writes a react app to give the user what they want. It'd be hard to get that experience in a framework like this.
> Tinybird is not affiliated with, associated with, or sponsored by ClickHouse, Inc. ClickHouse® is a registered trademark of ClickHouse, Inc.
Yeah, it sucks they need to do this. If I was a visitor to their website, I'd immediately want to know what ClickHouse, Inc. is and you'd realize ---> it's managed clickhouse, direct competitor... why would I use the one that needs all the ®'s
my car has an AI assistant. I don't know what the wake word is, but it will wake up and be useless with no obvious way to turn it off. I'm sure I could search for it, but it happens while I'm driving and I forget about it. It happens just infrequently enough to not remember, but often enough to be really annoying.
My wife turned on a meditation feature on our very old Alexa. I guess the app was deleted or something, but every morning Alexa turns on and says "Starting your meditation times ... Sorry, this is no longer available". If I tell Alexa to turn this off, it has no idea what I'm talking about and it shows up nowhere in the iOS app. Instead of meditation, I got a nice dose of minor annoyance every morning.
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