It’s not riskless, it’s just the benchmark that all active investors and their associated podcasters have to beat.
Active investors usually fall into the same fallacy where people all rate themselves as above average. Mathematically speaking a large portion of active investors have to do worse than average and simply stating FUD about averages won’t change that
Yes its hard to predict for sure. Especially as the dust will only settle properly when Frontierlabs reach some kind of slowdown or ceilling, which I do not see right now.
This may be a side conversation, but wondered how far away we are to a small LLM being prompted to turn itself into a worm that uses all exploits it knows, and prompts other LLM's when it has access.
I've seen this discussed on HN a few times under articles, and is a risk I've seen communicated in AI safety.
I guess it's being called an AI prompt worm. It's not quite to the stage of sovereign AI where the entire model weights are moved with the 'virus', but still presents a pretty big risk.
The average investor has been lulled into feeling the index is riskless.
I suggest everyone to find a video online by their choice of podcaster interviewing Mike Green to learn more