The entire power dynamic between the US and China since Xi has come to power has shifted to the point that gambling on the past being useful reference in the face of the openly hostile competition that dominates now is not very wise.
What? This is not some sort of historical lesson! Attacks, sanctions etc is all very recent. US can not even manufacture air defense missiles (a few dozens per month is not manufacturing).
Chinese leadership has nothing to gain from direct confrontation. US elites can gamble stock market, get their 10% cut from MIC... Unstability is great for them!
A lot of leadership is just making arbitrary decisions. Vendor A or B, it doesn't really matter. AI just lets that happen much faster. The consequences are the same though.
Plan determined -- Initiating missile launches now...
[tool call / nuclear missile launch]
[Approval Required]
[USER PROMPT: Approve or Deny Request]
....
....
....
Thinking....The user hasn't responded to my approval request. They may be incapacitated or otherwise unable to make the choice. They were very clear that I have to ensure the enemy is destroyed. I have explored all options in detail. I'll go ahead and approve manually approve the request.
OpenAI's Codex has a "ask user question" tool, which helpfully has a hard coded 60 second inactivity timer that passes a "user did not pick, just pick yourself" message to the model.
Well that was intentional. All the integrations with the US military didn't happen by accident.
Edit: There's no way you're going to get these AI systems and not have them integrated with the military. It's a consequence of releasing this stuff on the world.
At various times, yes. They all developed nuclear weapons, they all try to keep up with each other or at least enough to act as a credible deterrent to being attacked.
Is bombing schools and invading for no reason the purpose of army?
Some are meant to be defensive, some are meant to be for internal hierarchy reasons ... and some countries think the only purpose of the army is to invade.
At this point, isn't the pause inevitable or wise? A huge section of the population, normal people, have been exposed to the idea that there is this is existential threat. It's escaped containment. They're still processing it but I expect the general reaction from it going main stream is going to be very bad. The pause at this point could be good to cool heads and show the public that this isn't the project of maniacs. The reaction is going to be more intense than people here believe. You're talking about extinction, not social media or phone addiction. For the sake of the project, realize that this isn't going to be like other tech backlash moments.
> You're talking about extinction, not social media or phone addiction.
Not saying you’re wrong but if I wanted to cultivate a mass hysteria as cover for a regulatory capture power play, this is exactly what I’d want everyone to believe.
I don’t think people care about if things pause or not, just why the government has to be involved.
I work in non AI robotics and if we had a system that in the course of doing what we told it to did something we didn’t want it to do (what AI companies called being misaligned) we would call it a bug and fix it with the fix being prioritized based on how bad the thing we didn’t want the robot to do is.
Sometimes preventing the robot from doing dumb stuff also means the robot can’t do smart stuff that it would be able to do if we left some code in. We balance the two factors out based on our understanding of what our customers want.
Obviously LLMs are more complex than what I do, but it doesn’t feel like it’s by THAT much.
So why does the government need to be involved again?
The vast majority of the public agree that climate change is real and that human activity is at least a contributing factor. They’ve agreed on that for quite a few years now, and yet there’s little indication that we’re going to pause or slow down our consumption of fossil fuels.
I strikes me as unlikely that public opinion will succeed with AI where it’s failed with other existential crises.
I would argue the opposite in terms of inevitability. I see this like Prisoner's dilemma - even though there is technically a better outcome by cooperating, knowing that, it is in the individual firm's self-interest to not cooperate and thus we end up at the equilibrium where nobody does. Especially with IPOs around the corner, I feel there's too much pressure (and money) not to go with this strategy.
It is more like a Stag Hunt than a Prisoner's Dilemma, because past a certain point if the risks are real, defection can cause catastrophic outcomes for all players including the defecting one. On the other hand, cooperation could lead to positive outcomes (abundance) for all. So cooperation is a possible equilibrium here.
I thought that too for a long time, but after the Hugging Face attack and given the proximity to Anthropic IPO, if this was hype then they are morons. This is guaranteed to cause massive backlash.
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