I am technically not saying that. I am taking off from the parent comment and speculating.
Their data from September is leaked via IPO preview, and October is not yet complete, so how can someone even project that?
// I am a techie, not a finance guy, so apart from public chatter, no inside knowledge.
And I do feel their IPO is being rushed before anyone has enough information to make up their mind. The VCs or private equity have given them a lot of money and want to cash out. When the revenue does slow down, any investor should pause to take a look at whether they can right the ship, or has the landscape itself changed.
Their revenue taps, product releases and marketing campaigns were all strategic: to be able to show nice numbers in the financials.
Once they stop playing games with quality of output of these models and revenue's shrink - they will be in deep deep trouble. They are hoping they will conjure up a break through with the IPO proceeds.
The flattening part is not reported, but based on estimates from a company called TickerTrends. If they were correct it would imply a sudden and unusual departure from some incredibly impressive growth. Even more unusual given the release of their industry leading Opus/Sonnet/Haiku. Something to watch but I would not consider that authoritative, and would not invest based on that either.
Opem models catching up in capabilities to do more and more tasks would easily explain it, there is a reason OpenRouter got sold for 7.5 bil, the money is in selling shovels and price per token, not chasing the frontier
The impressive growth is plausible, but it also rhymes with "bubble". There is obviously a value proposition in there, but I'm skeptical it's a trillion-dollar one. It's a machine for turning electricity and silicon into powerpoint and spotify slop
I partly agree. In support of your scepticism, I also think the frontier labs are overvalued. The expensive part which is not currently priced into the subscriptions is the training. Inference is usually profitable now - at least from what we can tell from industry reports.
Where this bubble differs from the dot-com bubble is that valuations have very strong, organic user demand behind them. In 1999, prototype websites with few customers were getting IPOs worth hundreds of millions. This time, demand is insatiable. Frontier mdoels also has very low global penetration, relatively speaking, so the TAM permits exponentially more sales, in theory.
However the risks are numerous for these labs. Foremost is that Chinese labs are able to easily distill frontier models. A tiny fraction of the cost of training, and they have a close approximation. Second, models are getting much more efficient per task. Companies are already discovering what "good enough" looks like, and it often ends up being much cheaper than what Anthropic and OpenAI are selling. This will only accelerate.
My investment thesis is bullish on the entire AI stack except the frontier labs. I think power generation is going to see huge demand. Ditto for infrastructure and data centers. Ditto for the products and services created by these models.
I don't have the numbers in front of me but could have sworn I had seen quarterly revenue growth rates dropping drastically over the last year or so. Still a strong growth rate, but much lower than prior growth rates.
Edit: Data because silent down votes are useless, Anthropic Q2 2026 grew 147% while Q3 grew 45%
Yes but its growth rates with respect to expenditures, and in particular capital expenditures (R&D etc), which we have no idea about.
Gross margins here are irrelevant: if they can't charge a high enough price to cover all expenditures and rely on cash raised via fund-raises, they are not financially healthy.
I have some sorta skin condition that I can not stand either the heated seats and the heated steering wheel.
But my wife ... in winters, the first thing on entering the car is to activate the heatings seats. Some people like them. And yes I paid for the subscription (or a package that cost me a bunch but gave me everything all inclusive).
Someone's got to get the vulnerabilities patched before AI (sorry, SI) does a coordinated hit job. I like this one at a time thing than a complete dystopia. By next year, half of these will be patched, and people writing more secure software .... sorry one too many jokes :)
I must be one of the few who completed the interview. I was hesitant with some questions but still gave direct feedback and asked to make my feedback public. Not sure if they will do it. And just like LLM does the interview did pick up some nuances from my answer and played them back for me to confirm. "Oh so you are saying not only this but that, is that right?
Whether they use it or not, whether they use it to manipulate us or whatever, it is undeniable that AI is the biggest change happening right now, and if there is an opportunity to nudge it, why not.
Edit. And no, I was not asked to login. They likely had the login. I just clicked the survey link from the terminal claude, it opened in a browser and off to the races.
I did that last week for my son. Had photo from Walgreens though but rest of the process was quite amazing. This was before the announcement and I may have used state.gov or something ... maybe they had this going on for a while.
Still, much better than how it used to be. You could not do expedited processing but I guess it will come eventually.
Also did not need a login at all which seemed surprising and I did check whether I had gone to a phishing site.
We had our child's photo taken at Walgreen's in his car seat instead of the white reflective backdrop thing they usually use The worker told us "don't worry we can take that out." I was pretty interested to see what kind of software they were going to use.
A few minutes later, I look over at the worker's computer and she's manually scrubbing it out around the kid's head with a hard-edge white rectangle tool in something like MS Paint.
Whether it be corporates, Eiffel Tower management, or religious groups, I guess the new norm is - better to ask for forgiveness.
I am Indian origin so full disclosure done. I saw a picture of the group's 93 year old head in ascetic robes, the one who does not see women, have a picture below Eiffel Tower for memories. Sir, what part of asceticism do you teach?
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