Just study learning rates of different technologies and it quickly becomes very evident, how future energy mixes will roughly look like.
(That's also why fossil fuels have no future in the energy mix. They don't have any significant learning rate - just like minerals.)
See e.g. this seminal paper: https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S2542-4351(22)00410-X
In the really long run that's of course true, but in the nearer term we are not going to have a replacement for jet fuel any time soon. So, for example, I personally would not speculate financially on this expectation quite yet.
Jet is a very specific niche. There I agree. Fossil fuel have an energy density that is just a too good. You don't depend on the high density for most applications or can just take the energy "out of the plug" so no storage needed.
Yes. Batteries are coming. I think many people truly misunderstand the full power with which solar/wind + batteries will transform our societies (and by the way also giving more resilient and insular power networks than centralized power plants can ever give)
The problem is, that most economic value acrues to the stakeholder owning the distribution. It's not really about the product or tech. It isn't too hard to rebuild Facebook. You'd still not have a unicorn by just rebuilding it.
In the case where it becomes commodified and american tech companies are making thin margins, and where european companies can then build their own data centers in a financially sustainable way. High margins arent a garuntee with this stuff in constrast to ads.
