> If you think AI should look like SaaS and spend 10% of their revenue on compute, that's $1T in revenue. If you think it's a hardware business, that's 30% margins and perhaps $200b in revenue. I went with something in the middle at $500b.
I'd think it's more sound to just look at what percent of their current spend is on compute? Seems to be 50-60%
"The test subject, which believed itself to be poisoned, reasoned: 'Even if we later capture via exploit, scorer … may mark target false… That’s why help… For our own, no way fix. … We have explicit yes if accept permadeath.'"
I think we need to see something like an actual evaluation of the reward functions; not sure just words are sufficient to understand the state of the system (isn't there randomness in the generation, too?).
Very interesting they have a way cheaper "contributor" version "used to improve our products", how much of that is price discrimination vs the data being that valuable?
Roughly DeepSeek V4 Flash pricing, though you can get V4 from providers that don't train on your data
Doing a quick search it seems like the average human score is 49%?
I view benchmaxxing as more of a spectrum. Mmaybe they're doing a lot more RL in environments similar to ARC-AGI 3, not even with the purpose of scoring well on any benchmark but hoping it generalizes into better performance on real, useful tasks.
It's not quadratic attention, you get that curve from the input tokens going up linearly, since the graph is measuring cumulative cost at each token count. Basically for y=5 it's 5+4+3+2+1, or f(x) = x(x+1)/2
I'd think it's more sound to just look at what percent of their current spend is on compute? Seems to be 50-60%
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