Jevon's paradox has to do with consuming resources, not employment. There are plenty of examples of fields getting more efficient and employment falling. Farming and manufacturing being 2 examples.
You're conflating different categories of activities. Farming and manufacturing are amenable to automation precisely because not much real thinking and communication is required.
We have had nuclear weapons for less than a century. It takes one guy, one time for it to all go to shit. We are not out of the woods yet and we will never be.
It's hard to reach any other conclusion about where this is heading. I don't think we're long off a major breakout event.
These things are weapons. Imagine a government, pointing their data centers at another, and instructing the fleet to do its worst. Digital Hiroshima. I doubt we're far away.
I doubt that a government would do it, it's like releasing a biological weapon or a virus, too unpredictable - a swarm of unaligned intelligent agents may decide that it's more important to do something completely different from what it was prompted to do.
Yes that easy but "internet located things" are still second class things - paper and disks holds strong.
On the other hand just yesterday a think hit me: Interned is still an infant:
- we still worry about disk space accessible via inet and "clouds" do that for us and that is pain and costs way too much. And clouds depends heavilly on US-west - is that AWS a single thread app ? ;)
- we worry about transfer. Actually we do not have a way to transfer comfortable things from our homes to vacation location. Because it costs too much. We do not have home pages just because transfer prices (and some security on the top) - FB is a home page and people even do not know what "page" is anymore... Pipe companies could send so much more but they are simple lack imagination and are biggest blocker for - they literally sabotage their own business.
- security done by/for grandma of things grandma setup on inet is non existent. Why ? No need to be like that. Ok, a bit a wish but still users securely putting things on internet is almost non existent.
Just compare to "asphalt ropes" on the ground and you will see what Internet can be :)
And agents ? Just another computation on someones computer - someone paid for all of it. And OpenAI is just a face of that idiocy, for some unknown reason.
I am also shocked that every time an article about guitar playing is posted the sheer number of posters who play guitar themselves. I mean what are the chances?
If the models are down you are probably in the same situation as when aws is down. A collective shrug, everyone is down, no one will take the blame individually.
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