> After finding this incident, we broadened our search to roughly 481 million transcripts—an intentionally wide net, consisting of all transcripts from our Frontier Red Team, many non-cyber evaluations, reinforcement learning (RL) environments, subagent logs, and more. We performed a first-stage scan of this group of transcripts for signs of internet access, such as public IP addresses and web addresses, and a second-stage scan using Claude to review the 9.2 million transcripts the first stage flagged for escalation. This scan re-identified the four incidents and found no other cases of similar or worse severity.
> They also shouldn't be allowed to openly stir fear in the public by saying there is a 70% chance we're going to be extinct in two years without STRONG substantiation. Baseless clout-chasing social media posts like this are doing unheard of amounts of damage right now.
Yeah, man, we should just make it illegal to express our opinions in public. Also we should apply social pressure to prevent employees from saying things that would be inconvenient for their employer, that's highly pro-social.
No, we should make it illegal to say unsubstantiated things that are highly extremist and cause mass societal panic that further ensures we really do end up in a situation that screws everybody over because power becomes centralized into the hands of those who are funding these fear campaigns, like, "there's a 70% chance my machine is going to kill you, your children and your whole family in the next 2 years" without having a single shred of evidence or rational argument as to why.
Furthermore, this sort of rhetoric is not only extremist and will result in terrible regulatory outcomes, but it results in real physical harm, because plenty of psychopaths hear this stuff and go and murder people as a result. Sam Altman's house getting firebombed multiple times is an example.
It's fine to speak your mind if you can present a fruitful evidenced argument, but not if you're just throwing out chaos to incite the public into a flurry.
Probabilities are subjective states of belief! They have always been subjective states of belief! There is no such thing as a "probability" out there in the real world (ignoring random quantum stuff, which isn't what anybody is talking about). If you took out a coin right now and flipped it, the true odds of it coming up heads are not 50%, but those are (roughly) the correct betting odds for an external observer to assign to it.
> After finding this incident, we broadened our search to roughly 481 million transcripts—an intentionally wide net, consisting of all transcripts from our Frontier Red Team, many non-cyber evaluations, reinforcement learning (RL) environments, subagent logs, and more. We performed a first-stage scan of this group of transcripts for signs of internet access, such as public IP addresses and web addresses, and a second-stage scan using Claude to review the 9.2 million transcripts the first stage flagged for escalation. This scan re-identified the four incidents and found no other cases of similar or worse severity.
https://www.anthropic.com/research/alignment-assessment-cybe...