"In the final days of February, the Trump administration demanded an overwhelming aerial assault. More than 1,000 Iranian targets were hit within the first 24 hours alone. That order compressed the time frame for finalizing targets, the officials said, instilling an urgency that — combined with gaps in underlying information about the site, cuts in civilian-protection personnel and an overreliance on artificial-intelligence technology — set the stage for the deadly error."
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Maven is an untested tool for rapidly selecting targets under time pressure during a war. It's reason for existing is speed. If you're in a shooting war, the ability to select good military targets faster than your enemy, but not necessarily with zero error, is an advantage.
Planning a first strike is a different situation. Time pressure should not be a significant factor. Humans should have been doing their due diligence on every single target. If an untested tool for rapid mid-battle target selection was relied upon completely because of a hasty executive order, then the responsibility falls entirely on the executive.
I think that’s the important distinction. Mistakes under pressure do happen. Unnecessary pressure is not a mistake, though, it’s a crime in this context. They could start planning earlier or commit to action later.
Well the order wasn't lawful, Congress hadn't countenanced a war.
Unfortunately the military all turned their backs on their oath to uphold the constitution (Again! Deploying against USA cities and kidnapping foreign heads-of-state at the whim of Trump is also not lawful). At that point it is hard to see how your democracy can be resurrected.
<< At that point it is hard to see how your democracy can be resurrected.
Oddly, here I am more optimistic. The antipathy towards Tman rivals Musk and few other public personas and that, previously somewhat small crowd, appears to be growing. Historically speaking, I would say it is unlikely based on what happened ( or did not happen ) with Bush, but may actually unite enough people to punish its executive power center. I will admit that going into this year, this was not even close to my anything close to my bingo card. Then again, neither was Greenland, import war with Canada, Iran war and now open talk about banning diesel exports.
I don't want to get philosophical on you, but what is consent, exactly. For example, in US, most would claim the current administration has consent of the populace to govern and yet, somehow, priorities of said populations are nowhere close to being met suggesting that either the population's consent is either imaginary, temporary, conditional, a phrase or an more interesting mix of those. And amusingly, we do not even have to search hard for it, because this administration has a funny habit of saying quiet part out lout ( https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2025/12... - "We don’t do foreign policy by poll, and our job is to carry out the directives of the President.").
On the other hand, we have Saudi Arabia, which, clearly, is not exactly a democracy. It may not be a dictatorship per se since it is a monarchy, but that monarchy rule is absolute ( so it is really a step away from NK ). And you may think they don't need population's consent, but you would be surprised how much consent you need when the population is used to 'harsh but oil is flowing so we get something out of it' trade off.
In other words, I am not saying you are wrong, but you may want to re-consider your priors.
Great point. Less deadly but just as incompetent was the utter failure to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve when gas was cheap for a year leading up to this war of choice; a war that was certain to massively disrupt global energy markets. Energy disruptions had been an obvious consequence to every expert and non-expert who had looked at attacking Iran for decades. Yet the people who chose to start the war managed to be caught completely off guard by that.
Just like clowns in charge were caught off guard by the fact that Iran has a drone program, resulting in the loss of dozens of air frames and much of our strategic munition stockpiles. Iran literally jump started Russia's drone program in a high profile way, and yet trump/hegseth somehow completely failed to plan for how to counter those drones and had to resort to lobbing scarce multi-million interceptor missiles at them and watching our bases take heavy damage.
These are just some of the failures we know about. The administration has been extremely tight lipped about these failures and there are surely many more that aren't common knowledge. Who knows how many hundreds of other children have been needlessly killed outside of the school strike.
>If you're in a shooting war, the ability to select good military targets faster than your enemy, but not necessarily with zero error, is an advantage.
I mean, yes and no. Merely selecting the targets is not really an advantage in and of itself. I'm sure Iran could select hundreds of targets in the 48 States at the drop of a hat, but they don't have the air power to hit those targets so the air tasking cycle breaks down.
The air tasking cycle upon which modern NATO air campaigns are predicated and carried out is a cyclical 6-step process:
1. objectives not yet met/effects required
2. target development/selection to deliver those effects/meet those objectives
3. weaponeering, allocation, prioritization (can a hellfire launched from a drone do this or do we need something more specialized?)
4. actually write and issue the air tasking orders that cause air sorties to be flown
5. execution of said ATOs
6. assessment; GOTO 1
Normally this is a 72-hour cycle and your ops centre would be running 3+ of these cycles in overlapping fashion so that every 12-24 hours you have one loop reaching the top. AI appears to be in heavy use in the target development step, but there are diminishing returns for speed here. At some point there's just no added benefit for choosing more targets because aircraft can only transit to/from the area so fast. Also the other loops are still running and you're potentially developing targets without knowledge of effects being delivered by the other ATO loops so you're now wasting effort. In other words it's not like a computer where more hertz is better; you might get better results by simply waiting for one of the other cycle's kinetic results that will better inform your own target development stage.
For a long time after the internet arrived on the scene, a lot of online news stories would reference websites, papers, polls, etc. without linking to them. There are still news sources doing this today. Sometimes such articles interpret or place context around their hidden references, but a lot of the time they just summarize.
Giving someone the text output of a LLM is very similar to publishing a summary without links to the referenced material. When you were querying your LLM, you could have asked specific questions or asked for a custom focus or point of view. Your intended audience might have questions or different concerns, but they're unable to interact with your LLM. What you have delivered is static and unresponsive. It has all the disadvantages of being machine output without the advantage of being interactive, the way your LLM was for you.
It may have to wait until compute is cheap enough that tokens are essentially free, but we need a system to pass "hyperlinks" to LLM's primed with context, ready to be interactively queried on a chosen context. It's being overly generous to assume that people are putting even 300 bits into a LLM for every 1000 bits of regurgitated writing they try to pass off as their own. When people post LLM output as if it were their own, I have no choice but to assume they had zero knowledge of the subject, but this query taught them what they wanted to learn, and now they're sharing that. That's fine, but please pass an interactive LLM link rather than static text.
Once we have "hyperlinks" for LLM sessions, perhaps we can share LLM output a little more usefully and honestly.
I've seen professional journal pieces refer to science journal articles only to go and read the original article and find that it draws a different conclusion than what is implied by the journalist.
My father used to complain about that 40 years ago, though in his case he was reading newspapers rather than professional journals. But he'd point it out to me often enough that I started to see the pattern. Scientist publishes paper saying "We may have found evidence of X, which suggests the possibility that Y may also be occurring". Journalist: "Scientists find X which proves Y".
This has been happening for decades; I still see it happening today*. My cynical suspicion is that words like "maybe" and "suggests the possibility" don't sell enough papers.
* Worst offender I can remember was actually from the summary of a paper published on the research institution's own website, so I couldn't blame it on "Oh, the journalist misunderstood what the scientist wrote". Summary said "Exposure to X can, on average, cause a 40% higher chance of Y" (where Y was a negative health outcome). I clicked through to the study and read it. Turned out the confidence interval on that chance of Y was so wide, all you could say with 95% confidence was that exposure to X could do anything from reduce your chance of Y by 5 percent, or increase it by 85 percent, or somewhere in between. They had averaged -5 and +85 to get the scarier-sounding 40% number that they published in the summary, but the truth would have been far closer to "this confidence interval is so wide that we really can't conclude anything from this data". But that wouldn't be nearly as likely to get them grants, so they tortured the data in their summary so that it would look better.
In most cases, they are only useful to other scientists in their field, which does mean that they are useless to the general person until they show up in the form of a new commodity.
There is also incentives to adapt the message to the outlet. If you send that data to peer review and say we found 40% increase, the reviewers would reject it, so they have to moderate themselves. But if you send a summary to the university’s outreach outlet saying that we found something or nothing we don’t know, then they would also reject putting it out. So even for the authors, the incentive is to send a careful conclusion to peer review and an overblown one to popsci.
Btw, I also think a 95% confidence interval is just the wrong statistic to look at given that data, and that they could probably have analyzed it better.
> Worst offender I can remember was actually from the summary of a paper published on the research institution's own website, so I couldn't blame it on "Oh, the journalist misunderstood what the scientist wrote".
It's a similar thing. We live in the "attention economy", and research institutions - particularly after the US President openly went and had his minions cut funding to research purely on ideological reasons, but it's been a problem for decades - are just as susceptible to blow stuff out of proportion to make headlines and thus increase the chance someone might throw some money over the fence.
And media does the same, just to manufacture artificial debate. And so do politicians.
And frankly, I'm fed up with that, we will drive ourselves into a wall.
> so I couldn't blame it on "Oh, the journalist misunderstood what the scientist wrote"
It's never the case that someone misunderstood what scientist wrote. Much like the scientific papers, news articles, including those reporting specifically on the discovery, have their own goals, and the paper being cited is used as evidence or argument for article's own "study". Except for press, the standard is rhetorical, not scientific, it's the conclusions and not the methods that are "pre-registered" at the start, and claims are defended by "hey it's just a point of view", not by statistical significance.
In your own example of worst offender: the scientific study was trying to establish and quantify the connection between X and Y. The summary article was trying to push the angle that "this institution is doing important work". It started with that conclusion, and the paper cited was just the first thing the author found that could be easily massaged into supporting that conclusions by rhetorical standards.
Same paper might get cited by journalist trying to push for "X is bad for you", and they'll do roughly the same as the summary article. And, same paper may be cited by someone claiming they have a miracle cure for Y, and they'll make a honest observation that "absence of X reducing Y is a common bullshit claim based on misunderstanding the paper [citation], that actually shows there's no correlation there, I mean look at the confidence intervals, even the author says that in text nobody bothers to read"... - citation may be honest, but the article itself is still using it to prop up a different flavor of bullshit.
TL;DR: don't believe news. It's bad for your mental and physical health (p<00.05).
> It's never the case that someone misunderstood what scientist wrote.
This is wrong. Reporters frequently don’t understand the science or the nuance in the science.
Reporting and science are two very different disciplines. Reporters rarely have a deep background in science and almost never have a background in the specific area that they’re reporting on.
Hell, even scientists have trouble accurately describing the work of a different scientific discipline.
Don’t invent bad faith motivations; they exist but most of the time it’s just two people slightly talking past each other.
> Don’t invent bad faith motivations; they exist but most of the time it’s just two people slightly talking past each other.
I'm not inventing them, but maybe conflating two sources:
1. Malice directly intending to hurt or defraud people. Probably not as common as how I make it seem.
2. Not caring. Well, I subscribe to the view that not expending effort to be accurate when talking to other person is as bad as slashing their tires (paraphrasing an old quip), so I very much consider bullshitting and picking a conclusion and then massaging facts to fit it, to be acting in bad faith too.
Nah, even in middle and high school it was plain that people sometimes misunderstood what the teachers meant. It's not like that goes away in adulthood; even when people "care", they still often misunderstand nuance or details, and sometimes even the bigger picture.
Honestly, it's plain weird to say that people never just make mistakes.
PS - worth adding that "I misunderstood" and "I didn't care enough" are not mutually exclusive. You can do both, so saying "they didn't misunderstand, they just didn't care" isn't a reasonable rebuttal. But even setting that aside, there'll be plenty of folks who care but still don't understand.
I'm gonna invoke Hanlon's handgun here: not attributing stupidity to what's adequately explained by systemic incentives promoting malice.
I normally assume people make mistakes. I don't believe this is a good explanation for news publications, university press releases, politicians, etc. because those are organizations with agenda, and commit "misunderstanding" of this type pretty much in every thing they publish. The pattern here is pretty conclusive, IMO.
> I normally assume people make mistakes. I don't believe this is a good explanation for news publications, university press releases, politicians, etc. because those are organizations with agenda, and commit "misunderstanding" of this type pretty much in every thing they publish. The pattern here is pretty conclusive, IMO.
The pattern of personal motives fits misunderstanding. You need to show that there is an organizational pattern of "malice" (your word, not mine), rather than an organizational pattern of "we are trying to publish quickly, and quality accidentally falls to the wayside". I.e., negligence, not malice.
You haven't provided even a shred of evidence suggesting there's malice at the journalist level. Every science journalist I have met genuinely cared about the science (which is why they were writing on it), but they didn't have time to learn enough about the subjects to understand they were oversimplifying things.
Not in science journalism, but I've personally encountered a case in normal journalism that I can only attribute to malice. It was many years ago, but it was so blatant I still remember it.
The 911 call went like this, according to its transcript. Caller: "This guy looks suspicious, like he's on drugs or something. It's raining and he's walking around looking into windows." 911 operator: "Can you describe him? What race is he?" Caller: "He looks black."
How the TV news reported it on the air was: Caller: "This guy looks suspicious ... He looks black."
Omitting excess verbiage is one thing. Omitting words that entirely change the context of the statement, making it look like the caller was racially prejudiced rather than responding to a specific question, is something else entirely. That was the last time I trusted reporting from that particular source (it was NBC, by the way).
My principle is that when someone lies to me, I stop trusting them. By lying I mean not just omitting details, or having an obvious bias, but deliberately telling me A when they clearly know that the truth is not-A. I could not see that report any other way but a deliberate lie, knowing the truth and attempting to make people believe the opposite.
I have recently reviewed a paper that referenced my own article… but the conclusion was so off, I actually went back and re-read that entire article just to be sure there was no hint to the conclusion that the author derived. There was none. Uncanny experience.
Link rot has accelerated in the past decade. Links are great, when they work. If they are a few years old, they often don't. You certainly can't count on it. If you're referencing a paper or an article, it's probably better to cite the title of the article, the name of the journal or magazine or newspaper it was published in, the author, and the date. Then someone might have a chance of finding it again.
Not just news stories. This is a huge problem with social media and forums in general too. Lots of people making bold claims about random things, lots of stories they say are based on a third party source, but very few actual links to said sources in question.
I still remember a recent example where one of those trivia accounts on Twitter posted an interesting story about some guy whose life completely changed after an accident, but neither linked to a source or named the person in question.
The only way I was able to verify it was true was through someone in the comments asking the platform's AI chatbot, and the chatbot providing context that I could research and verify...
> For a long time after the internet arrived on the scene, a lot of online news stories would reference websites, papers, polls, etc. without linking to them. There are still news sources doing this today.
I agree, this drives me crazy. Ironically, one of my favorite uses for Claude is to ask, "What study is this news article talking about?"
It's pretty good at digging up the source and related sources. And most of the time, if you read the source, the article is nonsense and gets everything wrong.
> For a long time...a lot of online news stories would reference websites, papers, polls, etc. without linking to them.
The "$CITY_NAME Business Journal" websites are the absolute worst with this. They'll refer to something specific, for example "$BIGCO's 2025 10-K filing" and it will be a link. That link will go to the 10-K, right? Nope! It goes to another page at the same business journal. Maybe that page is a summary of the 10-K, but probably not. Maybe it's just the general index page for all the articles about $BIGCO at that journal. What it links to, it definitely won't be the specific thing described by the text of that link.
Up here in Canada, we've seen vet clinics rapidly go corporate in the last couple of decades. Even ignoring prices, the degradation in the quality of care offered is stark. Vets working for corporate clinics are heavily micromanaged. They get less time per animal, are pressured into certain diagnoses and prescriptions, etc.. A lot of us now refuse to take our pets to clinics that aren't owned by the vets working there. Unfortunately, in many places there aren't a lot of options.
To put humans through this kind of misaligned system is the stuff of nightmares.
I would say there’s nothing humane about this, but there’s a certain section of the population who read too much Ayn Rand at too impressionable an age, or saw Wolf of Wall Street as aspirational, that very much rationalize their own behavior as natural.
At least they haven't relaxed restrictions on sulfur dioxide emissions, etc.. yet. Making rain acidic again would be completely on brand for this administration.
Sometimes intelligence "finds" evidence that suits political goals. e.g. You want to invade a country but are having a hard time convincing allies, getting UN approval, etc.. So, you let it be known to your spooks that you're not going to look too closely at their sources if they could just, pretty please, find something/anything juicy right bloody quick. The WMD evidence for the second U.S. invasion of Iraq was likely a case of this.
Then there's old-fashioned F'ups that don't fit your political agenda and are often quite damaging and embarrassing, not to mention lethal for people who don't deserve it. e.g. The U.S. used AI tools meant for rapidly picking targets in the middle of a war to plan their initial strikes on Iran. They had time to double check everything and do their due diligence before striking, but they didn't. So, a school next to a military base was targeted and a lot of kids died. This was a genuine F'up resulting from relying on a tool meant to give rapid but merely okay target selection under time pressure when there was no time pressure. The real mistake was made by humans.
The current case of the mistaken nuclear weapon parts shipment seems like an old-fashioned F'up, updated for the times. The people who didn't simply trust the tools and actually double checked should be commended. Others in their situation wouldn't have. I fully expect AI will be scapegoated for a lot of similar F'ups in the future even though it's still the responsibility of human beings to use ethics, caution, and restraint. AI doesn't get fired. Doesn't sue. It's actually pretty awesome for taking the blame.
When the Carney government decided to let a small, capped, number of Chinese EV's into Canada's auto market, it was clearly meant to send a message to Trump. Namely, if you succeed in destroying our auto sector, we'll drop all tariff's and import bans on auto's from abroad so de-Canada'ified American autos will have to compete on a level playing field for what is, currently, their #1 export market.
Instead of treating this concession like something that could be negotiated away at any moment, BYD is going hard right out of the gate. Even Tesla only built a small and inadequate charging network in Canada. If BYD builds a more substantial charging network while they have the access, that access will be much harder to take away. It would go from a potential negotiating chip to something Canadians won't want to do without.
Consent makes all the difference. Trump's talk of forcing Canada to become the 51st state via economic pressure stiffened the spines of Canadians and made it impossible for the Carney government to accept the same sort of deal other countries were getting. At the same time, it made closer relations with Europe look like a solution.
The reality is that the joining the EU as full members involves too great a sacrifice of sovereignty for middle powers like Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, etc.. Brussels is too far away and the EU itself barely functions with the members it already has. There is, however, broad will among middle powers to work together more closely than they do now. This associate EU member thing needs to strike a balance where countries who join it can cooperate and contribute without feeling like the EU is becoming another U.S..
Carney has said Canada is not looking to become a "member" of the EU. Meanwhile, "associate member" is an entirely new thing that has yet to be defined. These aren't incompatible statements.
It appears more accurate to say that Canada and the EU want to work together more closely than they do now. There will be something more than CETA. Perhaps more shared standards on food, etc.. Likely more military procurement cooperation. Perhaps something akin to NATO style military cooperation, just in case NATO implodes*. Perhaps there will be some cooperation in trade disputes as well.
I suspect there is recognition that middle powers like the EU, Canada, Australia, etc. can do a better job of cooperating without everyone joining the EU and giving up an uncomfortable amount of sovereignty. Slightly more cooperation than currently exists may be all that's required for middle powers to do a better job of standing up to the supers.
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*NATO imploding is unlikely, but it's always good to have a fallback.
There absolutely can be a price shock that will make current prices look economical. Oil is priced on a global market, and if the price is high enough, that might mean many Americans are priced out of some of their own oil. The only way to decouple the domestic and international markets is export and price controls. One need only look to Canada's NEP of the 80's to understand how that's likely to turn out.
Also, the U.S. is currently prosecuting a trade war against Canada that has, thanks to Trump, become a question of sovereignty for Canadians. The U.S.'s largest source of foreign oil is, potentially, one outburst from Trump away from Canada placing export duties on oil. It has been discussed in Canada, and it's viewed as an extreme option, but an option nonetheless. Trump would have to say or do something truly outrageous for that to happen, but his ability to turn allies into enemies should not be underestimated.
Bottom line, fuel could become a lot more expensive, quickly. Even if there's still gasoline to be had, it still qualifies as a shortage if it becomes unaffordable. Fuel prices affect food production, delivery of goods to markets, and pretty much every aspect of the economy.
Oil tankers travel at about the speed of a bicyle. If a price shock does happen it will last for months. If the war with Iran is not resolved promptly, this is precisely what will happen.
Oil tankers move about as fast a bicycle. If fuel prices start really spiking tomorrow and the conflict is resolved the very next day, the crisis will still last as long as it takes for bicycles to fan out across the globe. i.e. Probably a month or two. At least.
If a resolution to the conflict is not reached in very short order (i.e. days, not weeks), the crisis will be in full swing right when the midterms are going on. Of course, foresight and the ability to understand consequences do not seem to be strong points of this administration.
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Maven is an untested tool for rapidly selecting targets under time pressure during a war. It's reason for existing is speed. If you're in a shooting war, the ability to select good military targets faster than your enemy, but not necessarily with zero error, is an advantage.
Planning a first strike is a different situation. Time pressure should not be a significant factor. Humans should have been doing their due diligence on every single target. If an untested tool for rapid mid-battle target selection was relied upon completely because of a hasty executive order, then the responsibility falls entirely on the executive.
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