1. my ignorance is massive so don't bet on my predictions. There's so much FUD. This is like the industrial revolution but on steroids.
2. I see the moat around software decreasing quickly. Therefore, I'm going to project that there will be fewer coders in software only companies (such as Adobe, SAS, or Intuit)
3. It will be easier to support software so I see the need for more technical entrepreneurs. Software is going to be an amenity with services, hardware, or support. The code itself isn't going to be valuable like its current form.
4. I would project there will be more programmers in the future, but not pure programmers. More like the 1970s programmers who had other professions but would create their own programs.
I'm not sure this is more significant than the industrial revolution, but it is certainly faster. I am withholding judgement until we start to see real world changes beyond symbol manipulation.
I agree there is little moat around code qua code now. I'm not sure that means there will be fewer coders, because the people in the best position to take advantage of this new technology are... coders.
I again agree that code qua code is becoming less valuable, but I think that ironically _understanding_ code (and systems) is going up in value. Complexity still grows super-linearly and so judicious technical decisions will need to be made.
I strongly agree with your last point and I am advocating for a "+CS" track here at Montana State, where non-CS majors can learn enough practical CS to be productive and then excel in their own major. I'm speculating a 3-4 class track with AI/vibe coding as part of it.
> You can paste in pngs and they'll convert them to svg with varying degrees of success.
I've found Opus to be REALLY good at converting images that are well-suited to being SVGs (decent resolution, sharp edges, clear color boundaries [though gradients do OK]) after a few rounds of back-and-forth. It'll do precise measurements to figure out curvature, the exact colors to use/gradient stepping, simplify complex paths, etc.
The removing a prescription is a federal law, something that Utah can't overrule. Unfortunately some prescriptions are good for some medication and not great for others.
To me, coding is very similar to modern agriculture. Some people enjoy growing their own fruits and vegetables even though it takes significantly more time than buying stuff from the store. Personally I care more about the end result than the process so I do a lot of vibe coding.
Tell me about the end result you enjoy instead of growing your own food because I somehow suspect it’s premade slop from TJ’s microwaved and eating out. I would not be bragging about that!
Top 5 side projects that I enjoyed doing without having the requisite knowledge:
1. Adding TTL to my gmail to help clean up my account. I have an option to delete my kids' school emails at the end of the school year
2. Allowing my wife or I to add images to Google Drive and have those pics show up on our Frame TV
3. Showing a snapshot of my kids' Google Classroom to show up on the Frame TV
4. Chrome extension that removes the obfuscated LinkedIn links so that I can easily open those links in an incognito browser
5. I created a skill so that my AI will do research for me on a topic, save the information on markdown files and upload those to Gemini Notebook.
At work, I don't vibe code and I need to understand any proposed changes. Where I do like the vibe coding are small annoyances that I don't want to make time to learn everything APIs that I'm unlikely to use again. If they stop working tomorrow, no big deal.
you compared writing code manually to gardening by hand, but now you say that you only use it for fixing small personal problems (agreed, I build similar tools for myself every day using LLM’s) then say you wouldn’t use it to write code you submit for work. It actually seems your metaphor is a bit inverted here.
What stops me from using DraftKings.com from a VPN? I'm at the page right now, but I don't have an account. Will they verify that my IP and home address match or something?
I've found that some sites (even like restaurants, for example) have no problem setting up an order when I connect via my VPN (from Linux) - my default browsing setup. But when I go to pay, their payment processor refuses to work properly / fails, so I can't actually transact any $$. Others work just fine WITH VPN on. Sadly, the former is increasing and the latter decreasing, to the point it's getting harder and harder.
Heck, Lowes and BestBuy are pretty unusable in general via VPN already.. (or maybe due to ublock, or privacy badger or eff, etc.. :-)
They have an extensive blacklist of VPNs, and on top of that will require you to verify location on a phone if you don't have an obvious residential IP. Or maybe they just always do that? Of course if you have a sketchy proxy and a phone where you can spoof location and you can ensure they don't flag it as something "unverified" like GrapheneOS, you can get around it, and you'd be in a small minority.
Unfortunately know this because a gambler friend showed me.
I agree it would be very cool if they were open sourced, but the article is talking about the KV cache technique which if I understand correctly is open source (or at least the white paper is published).
If you don't pay for the product, you are the product. It's like gmail is free, but Google is harvesting all of my data to sell me ads. Meta is doing the same with Muse.
Sports practice was almost always after school and we would walk/bike by ourselves even in elementary school. All nights were free except for scouting. My kids have practice until 8PM on multiple nights and not centralized where they could walk alone to get there.
In addition for me, when I grew up we had family around. Currently my closest family member is ~600 miles away so they can't pop in to watch the kids.
While there are people around here that would still argue Anthropic/OpenAI tokens are "subsidized", I find it much more plausible that Muse tokens are, given Metas strategy of burning money, including on AI models, in hope of making something happen in a market they want to enter.
calling the tokens "subsidized" in a Muse subscription is incoherent. they arent selling the tokens. they are selling a product. the tokens are just part of the cost of making a product just like any other product in existence.
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