If there actually is a large displacement of white collar work because of AI there will simultaneously be 1) a huge surplus of physical labor which will bring wages down 2) a huge decrease in the number of people who can afford to employ tradespeople.
The dynamics of blue collar employment would obviously be changed as a second order effect of white collar worker displacement
How do geneticists go about identifying alleles associated with autism? Seems like the effect size would be very small for most of them, and given the relatively small sample population of humans that can be practically sequenced for this, it seems difficult to separate true signal from statistical noise.
Also is it actually just “a sum of cumulative effects of these alleles crossing a threshold causes autism” or more complex like “Allele A and B together has a very significant effect, A and C has a moderate effect but A, B, and C together is has no effect”
What's an allele? There is no real answer to that question. Or rather, the concept of allele is highly abstract and does not correspond well to actual genomic sequences.
Predicting phenotypes is not a linear function of the genome. It's a highly nonlinear function, affected by complex generative processes, feedback control, homeostasis, and many other active control mechanisms. With that said, you could come up with a proxy score that was a function of the genome and had predictive value for autism (ideally better than binary, with a description of the predicted autistic traits somebody showed).
Biology is the only field I've worked in where both "necessary but not sufficient" and "sufficient but not necessary" can both be the case at the same time.
GDP growth is never going to be that high again. GDP growth is just per-capita GDP growth (1-1.5% per year) + population growth (used to be 1%, now is 0% or slightly negative). GDP growth of 1-1.5% will be normal going forward and could even go lower if population decline is at -.5% per year, for example.
I did list GDP growth per capita[0], so that already was accounting for population changes.
Having said that, you are depressingly very correct. A negative population growth will cause the post-2008 depression to continue even longer, and probably more agressively.
Very hard to tell if this is satire. It reads like one of those old r/programmerhumor posts where people competed to come up with the worst designs possible for a volume control.
I could not think of a worse technology to use for an ETL pipeline than throwing LLMs at it and asking it to vibe out the correctness of the data every time it runs.
lol. wish it was. fwiw i was pretty much bearish on AI for years because I did go deep into this shit since i got access to GPT 3. but since astra i have been quite bullish.
98% of people think AI means what gemini tells them when they do a google search.
of that 2% who go beyond... maybe 20% of those are using AI to code.
most SWE still think "using AI" to code means the copilot pane they open on the side in VSC. they get sloppy code output and think "ai sucks!"
so of that 20%, maybe 5% have actually explored what an "agentic" workflow even means. they might use skills, set up their code base so AI almost NEVER makes a mistake. maybe 1-5% of that 5% actually went deeper, and those are the people who built tools like Cursor or Harvey or whatever other "agentic" companies.
you are still thinking about the old world where you obsess and define data models and bike shed over data integrity, all the while you have a "temporary" table with 3 attributes that gets 2 million queries per second that's now holding up a bunch of other shit that's also glued together.
> I could not think of a worse technology to use for an ETL pipeline than throwing LLMs at it and asking it to vibe out the correctness of the data every time it runs.
like i said, if you are still having quality issues in 2026, that's a skill gap.
also, agents now continually improve the process.
for a business, the only thing that matters is transaction log. for 99% of businesses, swe are a cost.
again this is like baby steps on the journey. we are still only 3 years into this technology being opened up to masses.
i'm sure people thought computers were dumb, or that cars are stupid because the first cars were moving slow af. "we have horses, why do we need to build out roads to get anywhere"
but you're free to feel smart doing 20/20 hindsight on things 100+ years from the future
> 98% of people think AI means what gemini tells them when they do a google search.
> of that 2% who go beyond... maybe 20% of those are using AI to code.
> so of that 20%, maybe 5% have... maybe 1-5% of that 5% actually went deeper
How can you write any of this when you said you just started liking LLMs with Astra, a model that released two weeks ago. You're whipping out a bunch of made up stats trying to describe large swaths of programmers while admittedly being unfamiliar with the capabilities until two weeks ago? Why are you so antagonistic towards people's skepticism if you used them for years and found no value in them? This sounds more like a comment trying to generate massive amounts of FOMO. "If you REALLY put a lot of your money into them, that's when they shine! Don't believe the haters!"
> like i said, if you are still having quality issues in 2026, that's a skill gap.
> also, agents now continually improve the process.
> for a business, the only thing that matters is transaction log. for 99% of businesses, swe are a cost.
Maybe you should try building something for more than two weeks before making such big declarations, because this really does read like someone who is excited about a novel they wrote last night at 3 am
because astra was a big jump, and it is a new model. i didn't get these types of results with fable. been building agentic workflows since gpt 3 days, and using AI coding agents since 2023.
been building stuff for years, so i'm not just some w2/1099 type guy who bike sheds for a living lol
this stuff is new... obviously it is a fast moving space.
yes, if you use a tool improperly that's on you. i am specifically talking about people who don't use skills (the most basic shit) and then get sloppy code.
But what if I use the skills, and still can't model to follow it? Does the AI company say anywhere that they will refund the tokens if the model does not follow what is written in the Skills file?
If there is no such guarantee, why should I spend time writing an elaborate skill file? There is no telling when the model chose to ignore stuff in it.
I don't understand how people can work with something like that!
i think you miss the part about the loop. you're still building software for the past/current world.
when you have chains of agents working seamlessly, where agents are managed by themselves (like spawning a new chain to do some scope of work), and it just sort of works on a infinite game loop, your system continually keeps improving as it works. at least, that is the goal with the systems i like to build.
you have to do your due diligence, obviously, as you would with any TOOL you use. in that case it means having specific goals, methodologies, etc. that each model has to follow. (if one is a "hey grok explain this" type of person when it comes to using ai, ngmi)
we have one agentic workflow where there are 4 different models that can be spawned (to handle tasks of various complexity), that work against an API (the source of truth). their goal is to work any time a specific file is uploaded, and handle it. it is a complicated file, with 1000s of line items, with varying amounts of uncertainty involved.
it happens in the real world today, where it costs $xxx,xxx per year to do. because it involves many people and companies... it is done totally manually today..
how it works in order to get to that resolution is different based on the complexity of the task... sometimes there's bad data in the mix because people make mistakes when they create stuff (we're not special). in this case it requires finding out whether it is indeed bad data or actually correct. that requires setting up a scheduled job, and handling it when there is a resolution.
i don't code this part. how this gets accomplished... the agents are able to work autonomously to handle any edge case, in order to complete the goal. the goal in this case is to ultimately record transactions (a goal of a business is to make money, believe it or not).
does this not make sense? jeez hacker news used to be an imaginative place.
the model that we pay $10-20 per 1M tokens will be $1 per 1M token next year.
And the model next year that we can pay $10-20 per 1M token will be even better than Astra and Terra/Sol/Luna. It is an exciting time.
Trump is almost amoral. It’s why he can’t understand at a basic level why his corruption would even be considered a scandal at all. In his mind, of course I’m using the presidency to enrich myself, my family, and my friends; that’s the whole point of gaining power. Of course I’m selling presidential pardons for cash, what’s the point of getting access to that power if I don’t sell my access to it.
You’re misunderstanding 2 fundamental things. First is that it’s very expensive to build anything in major US cities with the high cost of labor, materials, and permitting. Rent control completely tips the balance against building housing that you’ll rent out. Second is that the value of land is not going to depreciate in these premier US cities just because it’s not profitable to build rental units. There’s many valuable things you can do with that land, rental units will just stop getting built in favor of other things.
These camera also monitor the ambient Bluetooth output of phones in cars that pass by to identify who exactly was in the car at the time. Don’t think the LLC will hide that unless your phone is also owned under an LLC
I use my phone on airplane mode a lot, and also in a faraday cage bag. If you need directions, You can use use radio and pop in the directions then use just airplane mode and navigate and it will still place you via gps. If you want music use an AUX cable.
If you want privacy give up some of your convenience. If you're refusing to give up your convenience, than you have chosen to give up your privacy. I find it distasteful with people who have given up project their failures onto everyone else who haven't given up.
I highly doubt anything more than a small single-digit percent of users are willing to pay $50-100 for a Claude subscription themselves. Just like everything else (if your company isn’t paying for a seat) 90% of people will just use the free tier, 7-8% will use the first paid tier, 2-3% use some kind of power user plan. It could end up being a whale-driven business model in the end.
We are having trouble onboarding engineers with AI now. Some still struggle after their first year with very basic concepts/patterns we use and make the same mistakes again and again in their PRs because they just ask Claude to fix it and never internalize it. I think using LLMs feels good at first because you can get tickets out the door faster but you never develop enough knowledge to make a big impact or become an expert in the code or business.
I imagine they are still good hires - however there is a real cognitive debt that happens when we code with LLMs in my experience.
It’s harder to internalise concepts because you don’t go through the struggle of understanding them and finding the mental links you need to remember later.
I notice this with people around me - all of them are doing more things, but I am also catching more issues when reviewing docs and code.
Honestly you should probably invest in baking the basic patterns and concepts of your codebase into shared skills that are applied to everyone's Claude sessions.
It’s not better than human review. It’s good at catching low-hanging issues but it is often requested overly-defensive code to handle edge cases that don’t exist or are handled elsewhere in the stack. It generates a ton of noise with low-signal comments. It basically cannot at all identify problems that pose the highest risk, like integrations, correctness from a business perspective, etc.
The dynamics of blue collar employment would obviously be changed as a second order effect of white collar worker displacement