Absolutely. Rui is awesome. He's always been awesome. I was his director and then vp for a long time (also replaced by awesome people, thankfully). The day he left to make a go of mold and such I was sad for us and super excited for him.
I get this is basically advice for young founders and entrepreneurs, but i would ignore that request and encourage 17 year olds to spend time trying to find a happy medium between work and life.
Being a super rich and an unhappy workaholic, or a super-impressive engineer who wakes up one day at 45 and realizes they regret wasting half their life (I ran into way too many of these) is a much worse fate than "not being rich from your startup" and working a relatively regular job while feeling fulfilled and happy by more than just work.
Especially in the US, which is uniquely bad at this and encourages people to work themselves to death, mental health and work life balance are much more valuable things for 17 year olds to focus on than finding good startup ideas.
In case you think i'm being a bit dramatic, let's look at the state of 17 year old mental health in the heart of Silicon Valley:
"The City of Palo Alto and the Palo Alto Unified School District approved a funded contract to place 24/7 human security guards and monitors at all four local Caltrain grade crossings, including the Churchill Avenue crossing directly adjacent to Palo Alto High School."
(in case it's not obvious, it's because of suicides by high school students)
The 17 year olds do not need advice on better startups, and this situation will never get better if we focus our advice on how to be better at work instead of how to be better at life.
This will require redirecting the conversations.
Thank you. They need human contact, not more "sit in a room alone and get stressed as fuck for little ROI" tech bullshit. Unless the kid has a genuine, self-motivated interest in learning these things (a great, positive thing that should be nurtured), they should file pg's advice under "ok boomer."
Just a few days ago they turned on an experiment the forces claude code to use bash over standard tools in auto mode.
From the system prompt directly, new as of August 18th:
Do your work through the Bash tool wherever it can accomplish the job: read files with cat, head, or sed -n, search with grep and find, and make file changes with sed, heredocs, or short scripts, rather than using the dedicated Read, Edit, or Write tools. Fall back to a dedicated tool only when Bash genuinely cannot do the job.
I was wondering why Claude Code started ignoring my LSP tools and such a couple days ago, and this is why. Prompting around it (even with CLAUDE.md) results in low adherence.
This can be turned off by setting a special environment variable (setting CLAUDE_CODE_THRIFTY_SONIC to 0), but this is just a bad idea all around.
I'm sure they'll argue they are trying to make it use less context tokens to do things, but if this is the best they could think of, ....
This is of course, also not documented anywhere, as is typical for anthropic, you just have to guess whether you are going crazy or if they changed stuff seriously on you under the covers.
This was the last straw for me. Their harness (models are fine) was already falling well behind the other one i use (OMP) in the past 6 months in usability/etc, and they are the only ones who don't allow me to use other harnesses with my subscription.
So I've now stopped using claude code entirely. Unless something changes, i'll drop my max plan when it expires next month.
It is extraordinary how they managed to fuck up all of their goodwill with all these unnecessary stuff. They truly are a hostile company if I have ever seen one. And they had the entire developer community cheering for them a couple months ago.
I hope they fail in their mission, whatever that is. Because I'm sure it's no benefit to anyone ever.
While they’ve certainly fucked up goodwill with their actions, it’s also true that the tech enthusiast community has always been like teenagers who reject their favorite band when it gets popular.
Oh, I used Claude before they got popular… their new stuff is trash compared to the early albums
It's astonishing how often Anthropic choose to self-own. They're giving AMD a real run for their money in "never miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity"
I mean their track record when humans are in the loop is not better either. Decisions on hidden downgrades, subscription usage restrictions, account bans, neverending dance around model availability on subscription plans. Keeping CC closed source. Not releasing a single open model. BURNING BOOKS..
OpenAI feels like a bastion of competent management and development compared to this shit show and they have a psychopath on the helm. This is an achievement by itself.
What I find amazing is how many people are still clutching onto Claude Code like it's the only feasible tool and somehow genre-defining?
I personally got sick as f with their unreliability and hostility and bugs back in about January and switched to Codex but this is still very clearly a minority position.
I'm sure OpenAI will do the same nonsense eventually, but people need to act like they have options.
It's just an immature ecosystem still, which means that everything has its drawbacks (IMO). I like Code way more than Codex. I like Pi a lot, and I expect it or something like it will eventually be the winner here for me, but I really miss the no-brainer "it just works" integration of Claude into Code, and the non-usage-based billing. Pi feels a lot more "raw" to me at the moment.
Oh ffs is that why it suddenly started running into a ton of permissions errors trying to read and write files outside it's sandbox (I think the auto mode classifier blocks bash commands that would be allowed as read commands) and runs into all this nonsense where it uses bash to read a file then later tries to use the write tool and gets blocked on "must read file before writing it" and stuff? I thought I was going crazy yesterday- like had something changed ov5or had I just somebody not noticed it was failing tool calls that badly for months until yesterday but it makes sense if it was just because of that system prompt update. That's so god damn annoying idk how many tokens are getting wasted in the past couple days on these failed tool calls but it's not a trivial number
If i'm trying to steel-man why, I presume because the read/write/edit tools use more context tokens because they don't support reading part of a file/etc.
So the agent is going to put less into context when it uses sed to see 15 lines of a file than using read and putting the entire file into context.
That is my best charitable guess at what they are hoping to achieve.
Of course, there is an obvious set of solutions for this problem that don't involve pushing the agent to use bash.
Part of the reason i assume is that to extract 5 line ranges is a single line very small sed call that it has to output, but 5 separate full read calls it has to output correctly and quickly.
If you read the complaint, the prayer for relief is quite clear that they only are trying to stop them from operating in new york, deliberately offering gambling to new yorkers, etc.
If you go to page 29 you'll see what they requested.
The claim they are trying to prevent them from offering all event contracts nationwide is simply false. The closest anywhere is a claim to enjoin them from violating some federal criminal statutes that they would not be violating if they were not operating in new york illegally (IE do not stop them from operating nationwide).
You can also see their is no specific number on the damages. In fact, the only specific number is the request for Kalshi to pay $2000 in costs to the state of NY.
The CFTC is, understandably, relying on people not bothering to read it and so has put out an "alternate set of facts".
Edited my earlier comment to point here. Is your assessment that CFTC is pulling the broader impact fully out of the air, or are likely to try to spin the coverage of events in New York for participants outside of New York as counting as interstate commerce?
The "emergency powers" they speak of are 7 U.S.C. § 12a(9), and they are quite specific.
It gives them the authority to direct a registered entity to do a few specific things. None of those things are relevant to here. It's stuff like emergency margin requirements, position limits, etc. Not "violate state law". It gives them no power to enable a registered entity to violate a TRO, or anything like that. Such a power would have to come through pre-emption.
The CEA gives them zero authority to preempt state law directly, and any pre-emption would have to be argued to already have occurred under the Commodity Exchange Act. They'll argue it occurs because of their order, but it actually doesn't meet the requirements to do that, so then they'll argue the CEA preempts state law.
As you may imagine, this has been argued about before, for a very very very long time.
Gambling is core state police power, and has been found so many times. As such, presumptions against pre-emption would apply, etc. Even in the current court that ignores precedent, using an esoteric made-for-specific-situations emergency power statute like this one would to preempt new york/etc (this is not the only case) law would run clearly afoul of the so-called major questions doctrine.
Lastly, the current CEA regulations actually ban event contracts that are unlawful under state law (17 CFR 40.11):
Prohibition. A registered entity shall not list for trading or accept for clearing on or through the registered entity any of the following:
...
1. (1) An agreement, contract, transaction, or swap ... that involves, relates to, or references terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or an activity that is unlawful under any State or Federal law;
So trying to pre-empt state law when the existing regulations clearly don't allow event contracts that are disallowed under state law is ... not likely to succeed.
Also note that New York has claimed a violation of the wire act in there, and in particular 18 U.S.C. § 1084(a). This is a federal statute that makes it illegal to transmit sports betting information over the wire (it's okay if it's from a jurisdiction where it's legal to a jurisdiction where it's legal). They have asked the court to enjoin them from violating this. This claim is here because it avoids all the pre-emption issues - it's a federal statute. So New York is also hedging their bets on the state preemption issue.
All that said, there is also a CFTC-designated contract market that Kalshi operates, and that they could likely exercise significantly more power over, and New York can order them around less on. But that is likely to end up in the supreme court, and harder to predict. Any other court the answer would be clear - congress doesn't have the authority to regulate purely intra-state gambling, etc.
That says contracts about activities which are unlawful under State law, not contracts which are unlawful. Sports is legal, even if sports betting is regulated
Wanted to thank you for the highly informative breakdown, especially given we got here by me making the mistake of not pulling up the underlying complaint before commenting.
One thing you could perhaps shed some light on - if a TRO were to be requested (it seems none has been?) that would be similar to the permanent order that NY requested, would it have the effect of shutting down Kalshi nationwide unless and until they move their operations to a different state? Would this conceivably bring it legitimately under the jurisdiction of the CFTC?
Note that I am not in any way a fan of Kalshi and similar services, and I personally believe they are simply gambling services. Just curious what the law might say for now.
The complaint says "within or from New York or to persons in New York". But Kalshi is headquartered in Manhattan, right? So how can they continue to offer all event contracts nationwide without operating 'within or from New York'? Would they have to immediately move their HQ and fire all New York based employees?
As far as I can read it, no such attempt has been made. New York is saying certain things are illegal in New York. It seems New York is not attempting to have any say over what Kalshi does outside of New York, when it does not involve New York residents.
Yes, it's mighty inconvenient to have an office in a state that thinks your business activity is illegal. Maybe don't do that.
As I said earlier, the complaint says "within or from New York OR to persons in New York" (emphasis mine).
This is inconsistent with your statement "It seems New York is not attempting to have any say over what Kalshi does outside of New York, when it does not involve New York residents."
That sounds like a voluntary action they can decide to do, not something the state of New York is telling them to do. As far as I can tell, all they're being asked is to not break New York laws within New York. It's unfortunate if that was the whole extent of their business.
If a state decided to make trampolines illegal (sale, use and manufacture), it would suck to own a trampoline factory in that state. That's still not a nationwide ban.
Not literally. I think the text in question is: "within or from New York or to persons in New York." Where CFTC is arguing that "from" would have interstate consequences. I'm not a legal expert, though, so I have no idea if something similar has been fought in court before.
edit
Interesting, I found KalshiEX LLC v. Flaherty [1] which seems strikingly similar to this case and was ruled in favor of Kalshi.
"The Third Circuit affirmed the District Court’s order. The appellate court held that the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) grants the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exclusive jurisdiction over swaps, including sports-related event contracts traded on CFTC-licensed DCMs."
These are the CFTC licensed contract markets, which are not the same exact thing.
I'm not sure how to explain all this without writing a 70 page dissertation on HN, and it's probably not worth it :)
Overall - this is a wildly complicated area. To give you an idea how complicated: Ignoring state law, transmitting gambling information for sports events over the wire is a federal crime. See 18 U.S.C. § 1084(a), which makes it a crime for a person “engaged in the business of betting or wagering” knowingly to use an interstate or foreign wire facility to transmit bets/wagers or information assisting bets/wagers “on any sporting event or contest.”
(It's legal if you are transmitting from a jurisdiction where it's legal to a jurisdiction where it's legal).
This has been upheld repeatedly for sporting events.
New york can, and did, include a claim to enjoing them from violating this act, which has absolutely no pre-emption issue because it's not a state law.
The case you cited is going to end up in the supreme court, where it will be a toss up.
(in previous supreme courts, it would be a non-starter and the third circuit would have been summarily reversed)
I don't think you're disputing that the requested order would halt Kalshi's operations nationwide for as long as Kalshi remained headquartered in NYC though? The CFTC's framing is disingenuous, presumably because they wanted to create a false impression that NY was attempting to regulate activity without any nexus in that state, but that's still the practical effect given Kalshi's current location.
Corn is heavily subsidized,also has (in the US) federally prvided insurance programs against plunging prices, has paid uselessness(ethanol). Despite all of this corn has caused massive agriculture bankruptcy/takeover when it has failed anyway.
So it's more "what's special about corn". It is also fairly hilarious to claim the parent is denying basic economics and then bring up corn as an example of having successfully managed economics. If the scales were not being thumbed, and "basic economics" were in play, corn would be in very very bad shape.
In the case of DRAM, there is an incredibly long history of these gloom/glut cycles, and they have stayed roughly the same timeframes (~3 years) since the 1990's.
Almost all the ones who have survived this long are either in the same kind of boat as corn - protected in various forms from the downside - or don't increase production and get caught out until they are absoultely forced.
The very temporarily increased profit is not worth going bankrupt for - they make more money long term by being very cautious and know this.
There are a near infinite number of economic studies you could look at (and several sibling comments cite some) - DRAM manufactuers don't chase the price and probably couldn't anymore if they want to.
None of this denies basic economic theory, of course, since economic theory is not exactly "rigorous", even to the degree it could be (IE even the parts that are pure analysis of data rarely reproduce!).
People are happy to play with AI when the tech companies are burning hundreds of billions of dollars to subsidize it. It remains to be seen who is actually willing to pay for it at the prices required to recoup those insane investments.
Which directly leads to the next big development: all the big players are investing in silicon with "baked-in" models, like [0,1]. Turns out you don't need an expensive general-purpose GPU with heaps of RAM to contain a model when you can make a custom ASIC around one specific model! Why spend a fortune on DRAM / HBM when all you need is some finetuning parameters which are easily stored in on-die SRAM?
> It remains to be seen who is actually willing to pay for it at the prices required to recoup those insane investments.
Everyone. Open models are going to keep prices down. A lot of current models are more than usable. Self-hosting would have been an option if hardware prices get back to sane values.
The insane investments have to do with insane over-valuations, VCs involved and hence media spam on it. Chinese labs for example make do with 1% of the valuation and 1% of the resources.
Prices must raise a lot to make self hosting mainstream or at least fairly popular.
Yesterday a coworker posted on a customer's Slack the specs of a box he is planning to buy to run local models. It's about 5k Euro. I am paying 18 Euro per month for Claude Pro and I'm going through a migration (almost a total rewrite) of a web app from Vue 2 / Vuetify 2 / Vuex to Vue 3 / Vuetify 4 / Pinia. I never hit the 6 hours limit. I could consider running an equivalent model on a 500 Euro machine (about 2 years of Claude Pro) but 5k is 20 years and that box will be obsolete or will have failed beyond repair (no spares) much earlier than that.
The problem is that is speculation and the market barriers are currently too high for losing business to be a threat. The two outcomes are (1) you overbuild, you end being wrong, you go bankrupt and lose everything or (2) you are right, but since you didn't overbuild, you lost out on some revenue, but demand still exists 3 years later and you didn't lose everything.
In any other business choosing (2) would mean someone else swoops in and steals all your business. It doesn't look like this is at all possible for memory fabs.
"In any other business choosing (2) would mean someone else swoops in and steals all your business. It doesn't look like this is at all possible for memory fabs."
FWIW - Lots of people seem to believe the "in any other business", but it turns out there are tons and tons of places it is equally untrue, even where there is near zero time or cost barrier to entry.
It makes sense, CXMT takes as much profit as possible, then use that money to build more capacity, ultimately becoming one of the biggest competitor (only?) to the cartel.
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.cand.46...