It appears that you are easily fooled by weak evidence.

By writing nothing at all to disk IIRC. Was an interesting read.

> However, I have also heard that Russia is a lot closer to collapse than they let on.

I mean it seems like they were until someone just decided to give them huge infusion of money, remove all sanctions passed against them and throw them a huge lifeline. Oh and can't forget "remove sanctions for oligarchs".

What's also cool is if you take that n-gram frequency model, and scale it up from just 2 characters ('d' and 'f') to a full alphabet. And increase n towards a very large number then you can in theory do a good job of predicting sentences. Unfortunately you'll have a lot of your long sequences will only have 1 or 2 data points as n gets large, and you'll need an absurd amount of memory to store it all

So if instead you replace it with a "compressed" model that doesn't actually store all the seen n-gram options, but instead predicts them, then you've more or less just re-invented LLMs.

It took them 10 less than months to turn this news into the current unraveling disaster.

> The primary issue is Social Security.

No it's not. It's about 15% of the 2 trillion dollar defecit. Whoever told you that mislead you.

Yet another incompatible definition - here first principles thinking is define as "how do reach a solution?". If that were true, then it wouldn't be any different from "problem solving".

That's more-or-less the definition, no? First principles thinking and higher order thinking are both methods of problem solving.

I think I'll stop commenting in this thread as it seems like no two people in this thread are using compatible meanings of "first principles" thinking. Forget about equivalent meanings of it.

"First order" thinking from my knowledge is an entirely different concept.

This is a nice anecdote about Hibernate, but in the world does it have to do with "first principles" thinking?

That's the type of comment people make when they don't want to understand what the others side's actual views are, so instead they tell themselves a simple story they can believe rather than engage with the actual reason.

Both sides do it, but that's a prime example of one of the popular ones from one side.

It's Occam's Razor. In particular, nothing else explains why immigration became such a major issue for left-leaning parties around the western world only in the last 15 years: https://www.npr.org/2019/02/19/694804917/democrats-used-to-t.... As it became apparent that immigrants were a deep well of votes for people who wanted to expand the welfare state, immigration--which the left traditionally had viewed through the lens of economics and labor markets--became reframed as a civil rights and moral issue.

But if the dominant immigration flows to the U.S. were like Cubans in Florida (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/longform/2026/8/14/the-party-...), I strongly suspect we would be talking about how wealthy Republicans favor immigrants for cheap labor.