Our entire "free" civilization is a Trump (or the next guy) whim from an AI-processed ubiquitously monitored complete authoritarian lockdown.
Legislative, Executive, Judicial, doesn't matter: everything since 9/11, and likely much longer before in unofficial capacities, has been the steady groundwork for complete overturn of civil and constitutional rights indefinitely ... and therefore permanently.
Gulf of Tonkin / Reichstag Fire as justification. Secret courts, enemy combatants, warrantless monitoring, disappearing of people, dismantling of institutional memory. Databases, social networks, graph inference of behavior, secret lists. Massive prison infrastructure with no regard for cruel and unusual punishment.
This is the imminent great filter: not some nuclear armageddon. It's staring at us in China -- the human race placed under boot, and everyone stops having kids. A couple generations, and a civilization essentially disappears.
> This is the imminent great filter: not some nuclear armageddon.
Don't entirely rule out "nuclear armageddon" just yet. The levels of mass-stupidity on display in the "halls of power" these days don't really preclude any possible civilization-ending outcome. We just gotta wait and see where this is all goin' in the end. I'm personally leaning toward "Terminator" (minus the time-travel hooey and/or the actually intelligent killing machines).
It's becoming less of one. Previously I would have shied away from buying an AMD card because of CUDA, but with local LLMs getting good enough to be usable and frontier models becoming as good as they have, I bit the bullet and got an R9700 for local inference. Dealing with working around CUDA used to be more of a manual process, but when you can point an agent at it and get stuff working, it's dramatically less painful and scary than it used to be. Plus, at least in ComfyUI and local LLMs I'm finding support for AMD has gotten really good. Lately I've been witnessing a lot of people using agents to write custom kernels for RDNA4 and improving performance dramatically.
IMO, yes a lot of the "nvidia pays lots of people to make non-portable, tightly coupled backends to open source projects" is potentially going to be less of a moat?
(Though it could turn into "nvidia pay lots of people to use LLMs to make non-portable, tightly coupled backends to _even more_ open source projects")
It turns out the moat is “writing drivers that work”; Nvidia drivers simply work, and Intel’s are poor quality. So if I want stuff that works I need to buy Nvidia gear.
Hey how about we go back to LLM/AI being a simple knowledge request service? You have a model trained on data, you request a text or media response from that knowledge model.
No agents. And if someone loops the response into an agent, well, then they are legally liable for personally doing that.
I’m looking so much forward to the bubble popping and LLM to be seen as a standard software. They were so much more interesting without the whole absurd 14y-old-first-sci-fi hype around them :(
I'd argue at least half of it basically functions as a petroleum subsidy.
And the other thing that people just simply do not understand is it's solar and wind are now cheaper than anything else, even if the subsidies are applied to them, and would be even more so if the trump tarrifs were eliminated.
The only justification in nuclear right now it's deglobalization and energy independence. But I would argue all the money you throw into nuclear for that, it's much better served simply building out solar and wind
> And the other thing that people just simply do not understand is it's solar and wind are now cheaper than anything else, even if the subsidies are applied to them
> so if the trump tarrifs were eliminated
That sounds very very questionable. We have like tens of countries in Europe that are trying to implement solar and wind energy throughout the decades, and are undoubtful lieders and visioners in that areas. And what is the practical results? Energy costs like 10 times more than if that energy was generated through burning fissile fuel alone.
This really is about business strategy than any technical effort these days. Porting code should be among the easiest things for the llms to do these days
That's why I think lifters are really the only true path to cost reasonable nuclear power... They "burn" almost all fuel and have separation procedures for the other fission products, and I believe they can consume nuclear waste since it's a breeder reactor.
Legislative, Executive, Judicial, doesn't matter: everything since 9/11, and likely much longer before in unofficial capacities, has been the steady groundwork for complete overturn of civil and constitutional rights indefinitely ... and therefore permanently.
Gulf of Tonkin / Reichstag Fire as justification. Secret courts, enemy combatants, warrantless monitoring, disappearing of people, dismantling of institutional memory. Databases, social networks, graph inference of behavior, secret lists. Massive prison infrastructure with no regard for cruel and unusual punishment.
This is the imminent great filter: not some nuclear armageddon. It's staring at us in China -- the human race placed under boot, and everyone stops having kids. A couple generations, and a civilization essentially disappears.
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