As much as I wish I could say you're right -I think that's unlikely. Please feel free to say "I told you so" in fifteen days, however. I'd love to be wrong!
If you’re someone who treasures the scientific method and the scientific approach to understanding the world, you have to become comfortable with uncertainty. Particularly in the Senate are several possible outcomes with wildly different consequences, all of which are plausible.
Don’t let either loss aversion or irrational exuberance rule you. Weigh every possibility and prepare yourself for it psychologically. The result could be crushing defeat, but it could also be stunning triumph.
The majority of the Republican primary electorate demands Trump and won’t stand for elected Republicans who challenge him. There have been a fair number of Republicans who have stood up to him, but most of them are already out or on their way out.
It’s basically impossible for elected Republicans to hold Trump to account without losing office, and even if Republicans get wiped out in the coming election (I’m skeptical), I doubt that dynamic will change. If the price of gas weren’t so high, Republicans would be fairly happy with Trump — he’s basically kept his promise to be a hard-ass on immigration and other culture war issues.
I don’t expect a Republican reckoning that would please Democrats. Future Republican standard bearers will probably be very similar to Trump but more competent — akin to Erdogan, Bolsonaro, Orban, Modi, and others.
Exactly. Even if Trump disappeared today, the voters/mentality who elected him is not going anywhere. All they need is someone else to say "I am exactly like Trump and will keep doing everything he did," and that politician will be their top candidate. (R) is no longer the party of guys like Mitt Romney and John McCain.
Trump is a lame duck now and in 15 days there's nothing more he can do for senators or representatives since they will all be sucking up to whoever is their next nominee for president.
Even among people I know who voted for him, Trump fatigue is setting in and growing. Iran, renaming lakes and oceans, high cost of food and gas, none of that is what they voted for.
I don’t know about that. I remember when California Hispanics turned on Republicans after Prop 187 in the 1990s, and the realignment was permanent[1]. This could be the timeline where national Republicans lose Hispanics for good, destabilizing the knife-edge balance between the parties.
It doesn't matter whether Republicans lose the election or not. Trump will just ignore/dismiss the election results, or ignore/dismiss Congress, as he did has done for the last two years.
Republicans will not get any sense regardless of what happens.
The only important question is whether Democrats will get any sense if they win.
The worst outcome is actually Democrats winning and then keeping the status quo and continuing to serve corporations and special interest groups over the needs of their own constituents.
They won't have any real power to force through legislation even if they win, but if they win and don't use this time to shake up their own party and instead keep Schumer/Jeffries/et al in charge and keep towing the center-right Third Way-esque line then in a few years time we will find out that actually, yes, there are worse people that could be president than Trump (all of the malevolence, but perhaps with competence too next time).
Every election for over a decade has been a change election and the Democratic party refusing to understand this (because the consultant class and their high value donors don't want to understand it) is one of the primary factors in creating and enabling Trump. And it isn't yet clear they intend to address this. I mean, people are still taking a Gavin Newsom run in 2028 seriously ffs.
