My key thought is this, many of us necessarily work in low-purpose, boring corporate development jobs. The code was the only thing making it enjoyable, because problem solving was the skill we enjoy exercising and you get that in spades with programming, even if the actual business is soul sucking. This is the reality for many professions not just software. The second part of that reality is that we have to work to pay the bills, and stability is an important pillar that many families rely on. I mention that to answer the inevitable question "why would you work there then?". There isn't an abundance of fulfilling purposeful jobs unfortunately.
That problem solving aspect is being replaced by AI, and that means anyone in a position like that is losing the piece of the job that they enjoyed. The more apt analogy is that the farrier worked in a farrier factory, and the horses were actually mass produced statue horses with no purpose but making money. He still enjoyed working with his hands, but now they have replaced that part of his job with a button to press. Now he presses the button in the horse statue factory. He still has a job but now no joy, and eventually they will automate the button too. The outlook IS bleak, and many of us will move on to totally new industries and that's fine. Some will stay because they have a rare job where they have agency to problem solve on the layer above code. Many still just press the button to feed their family.
I agree with your first paragraph, a majority of corporate programming jobs probably suck. However I'm not convinced that AI will reduce demand for these positions to in a major way. It will instead change the required workflow. I've got a couple of industrial revolution points I'd like to share;
The Jevons Paradox addresses demand concerns. Software is now theoretically faster and cheaper. More projects are now financially viable, since total unit costs are down! The other side is the Automation Paradox, where now even more specialised knowledge is required to fix and maintain AI systems.
Your disenfranchisement is valid, however fortunately (or unfortunately?) do-nothing soulless corporate programming jobs have a good chance of sticking around, if in a changed way.
I think this is true, but I also think that AI has made the mental burden of putting up with a less than ideal job much lighter. I am no longer mentally exhausted at the end of a long working day, yet I have made a meaningful difference in terms of technical progress. And, at the end of the day, I am still bursting with energy about exciting personal projects I can now take on and make real progress on because I'm not dead at the end of the day.
Not sure if this fits, but the mechanic, rather than performing hard manual labor mounting horse shoes on horses, now just has to read software error codes during the day, and gets to enjoy driving his sports car in the evening.
That problem solving aspect is being replaced by AI, and that means anyone in a position like that is losing the piece of the job that they enjoyed. The more apt analogy is that the farrier worked in a farrier factory, and the horses were actually mass produced statue horses with no purpose but making money. He still enjoyed working with his hands, but now they have replaced that part of his job with a button to press. Now he presses the button in the horse statue factory. He still has a job but now no joy, and eventually they will automate the button too. The outlook IS bleak, and many of us will move on to totally new industries and that's fine. Some will stay because they have a rare job where they have agency to problem solve on the layer above code. Many still just press the button to feed their family.