The cybertruck was a disaster but I think the main issue is they didn't do any new model after that for almost a decade.

Also, Musk getting into politics and alienating most of its consumer base, of course.

That last part is a big thing, especially in Europe where a lot of their sales have almost stopped as no one wants to drive a nazi car.

AfD seems to be doing a little too well across the sea for me to believe that

They might see a rebound from last year which was a bad year for them but that's likely driven by some pretty aggressive price cuts.

China is actually nearly 3x bigger market for them than Europe and we have clearer numbers on how that's going:

  2019:  45,372
  2020: 137,459
  2021: 320,743
  2022: 439,770
  2023: 603,664
  2024: 657,102
  2025: 625,698

2026 so far has been shaping up to be a huge contraction. Only 316,251 were shipped in the first 8 months. (BYD sold 440k units in August alone)

Problem is, AfD voters also don't want to drive Teslas (not because they disagree with Elon's politics, but because "only hippies drive EVs, patriots drive real cars".)

Musk’s problem is that the intersection of “votes AfD” and “willing and able to buy premium electric vehicle” is relatively small

Tesla has managed to alienate the entire left wing while not enticing the right wing.

> no one wants to drive a nazi car. That explains why VW, Audi, Porsche, Mercedes, and BMW are doing so poorly. You know, those companies actually founded by Hitler. First rule of advertising is claim your week points are your strong points, and the first rule of politicizing is blame everyone else for what you are guilty of.

> as no one wants to drive a nazi car

Volkswagen had €322 billion in revenue last year and was literally in every way founded by the Nazi party.

The requirement for the air-cooled engine in the Beetle came from none other than Mr. Stubby Mustache himself.

the nazi party doesn't exist anymore and their ceo doesn't do nazi salutes

the only mistake was politics.

Their original strategy to make a mass market Model 2 after Model 3 was good. 8 years ago I was eagerly awaiting its release.

Then sometime around when the Ketamine began flowing the plan seems to have changed.

So I would add ketamine to politics.

What’s weird about all this is that the democrats were pretty pro-Tesla / pro-SpaceX before Elon Ketamized the Fed. And the democratic platform would have improved industrial policy via-a-vis renewables.

We can only conclude that the Ketamine haze addled his brain and he simply ignores the advice of those around him.

That a common failure mode

The interesting part is that small affordable EVs was Teslas initial goal IIRC. Changing horses in the middle of the stream just did not workout? I’m sure Tesla will be fine in the end though. There is always someone coming to the rescue.

Cybertruck technology ended up in cybercab and semi, so whether the vehicle itself won might not be relevant in long run.

Two other vehicles that barely exist?

No, the winning strategy was to release a conventional-looking truck, say something that very much looks like an F150 or a Silverado.

The Cybertruck, or what it should have been, was never meant to be an entry-level truck like the Slate, and the market for trucks clearly shows people are wanting to spent money on big trucks.

They (Elon) gambled they could reduce the price of the rest of the truck enough to make an “affordable” BEV by radical changing how it was built - turns out that wasn’t possible.

Ford gambled they could build a BEV truck like an F150 and make it affordable enough to attract their normal buyers. Turns out that wasn’t possible.

I’m not sure I see why one failure was better than the other.

> No, the winning strategy was to release a conventional-looking truck, say something that very much looks like an F150 or a Silverado.

Turns out F150 Lightning was not the winning strategy.

> Turns out F150 Lightning was not the winning strategy.

Keep in mind that this wasn't a truck designed to be an EV from the ground up, it's merely an adaptation of the gas-powered F150. What Tesla could have brought to the table was an EV-native truck. The Cybertruck is more or less that, but the goofy design is probably what killed it.

Buying a Tesla vehicle (or not) became a referendum on Elon himself. It became a small personal action one could take to feel like you could actually do something that had an effect. Whether or not it accomplished the goal is precisely the center of debate, but regardless, the feeling was real.