Teslas started out at 40k USD in mid-2010s money promising more affordable options that we're still waiting on (even companies like Slate will probably eat them up when they're able to ramp and gain a fanbase)
Chinese manufacturers are starting far below even the base of contemporary economy ICEs, this is another game entirely
one of the biggest reasons why they haven't taken over the US is because our infrastructure is decades behind. for most people to get a fast charge at home means they either need a new house or an electrical upgrade whereas chargers are everywhere in Chinese cities (even fast battery swap shops). given how balkanized transport authorities are (State's rights-to-not-work-together being in effect here) I suspect EV growth will mostly happen in urban centers willing to spend a little extra money on electrification rather than outfitting their police departments with milspec armored trucks
Entering that into a CPI inflation calculator, that is $50k in 2026 dollars due to inflation.
A Model 3 today starts at $38, which is WELL BELOW the 2016 promise. Corrected for inflation, that's roughly $28k in 2016 dollars
They effectively overdelivered on that promise.
The complaint here, is that Chinese manufacturers, who are mostly in a death battle against each other and not profitable are even cheaper than Tesla and Toyota. In the long run, I suspect that picture will simply not be sustainable for those companies.
if the $4k difference in today's money is nothing to you, I've got a Venmo you can donate to. I'll even ship you a decade-old GTX 1080 that's still functioning :)
$25,000 was speculative in 2020 not a hard deliverable, but $35,000 was the main promise which was delivered. I'm not even an Elon fanboy. I think he's a white supremacist. But credit is due where credit is due.
I mean, this is just another case of Elon issuing totally unrealistic claims to pump his stock since it isn't a formal press release. but much like all of his rantings and ravings on Twitter and I'd rather treat them as concrete promises since they have realworld economic effects and wide-ranging consequences
The $35,000 figure was presented on stage in front of a massive audience in an atmosphere where the government was recently still handing out $5,000 subsidies for EVs in 2016. I remember seeing this presentation. This $25,000 figure was mentioned off handedly in an interview years later with MKBHD. I remember this very clearly. Going in front of investors at a formal presentation and speculating in front of a youtuber are not the same thing.
The $35,000 figure was viewed as ambitious at the time, but now both Tesla and numerous other auto manufacturers offer cheaper models.
> The complaint here, is that Chinese manufacturers, who are mostly in a death battle against each other and not profitable are even cheaper than Tesla and Toyota. In the long run, I suspect that picture will simply not be sustainable for those companies.
Citation needed. Yes, the many Chinese manufacturers are fighting each other... but I see no reason why they can't maintain prices. And I doubt they're all unprofitable, especially the big ones like BYD.
is this what happens in China's market? because my understanding is that China loves having an array of competitors. their entire strategy is just to 'build the stage' (via infra buildouts, workforce training, etc) for private enterprises to capitalize on which means rich fields for everyone. and the more that compete, the better it is for their economy. it's why there's something like six large smartphone makers all competing with one another (not counting the myriad smaller makers that exist) - how many large smartphone makers exist in the US?
But the companies are not profitable; their losses are being covered by the Chinese state. The question is whether this is actually an effective strategy long term.
The Chinese market is this way because the people that run chinese companies have deep knowledge of actually how to make products, frequently engage in industrial espionage, and are willing do expend tons of effort just to undercut a competitor by 10 cents.
The magic is not in am i making a different widget. Its how that widget is made, what are all the machines involved in making that widget. Could i design a machine to make the exact same widget, but with reduced vibrations, 10% less electricity, and reduce maintenance by 10% while still maintaining quality?
For example
If they see a company making widgets, and this company makes them by using 10 custom engineered machines with a lifetime production run of 5 each, each of these 10 custom made machines needs to be designed by a army of engineers working for years.
A competitor in china will do espionage, the CEO's and upper management will study these 10 machines in depth, see where they could make improvements and if they see a opportunity like hey machine number 3 , 7 and 10 are designed like X, if we design it like Y we could cut electricity consumption by 10%. This will allow use to undercut their widgets for 10 cents.
The people running US corps are all business bros, and the people are lazy, they aren't interested in doing years of labor, to make a production line of 10 machines to undercut another billion dollar company for 10 cents.
If you go to your local chinatown, the chinese restaurants operate this way always constantly looking to crush their competitors, always trying to improve supply chains, always looking to cut costs and undercut competitors. Looking to cut out middlemen.
The biggest obstacles to Chinese vehicle sales in the United States are political and they are tremendous. Whichever party is blamed for their entry will lose Michigan for a generation and car dealership owners across the country
It certainly wouldn't help them but I don't know anybody in Michigan that isn't a c-suite that really cares that much about someone not buying American cars anymore. Most mechanics will tell you to buy a Toyota or Honda here. In the UP half of the cars are Subarus. The majority of automanufacturing has long ago left and nobody is happy about the quality of big 3 brands.
30 years ago I would have agreed, but most Michigan buyers at best begrudgingly buy American now.
this is a really good point. dealership lobbying is so weirdly under-covered and yet affects so much of our lived experience - from crash safety, to pedestrian experiences, to lemon laws. when I worked for the state consumer protection agency many moons ago, we had a drag-out fight with dealerships in the state legislature trying to advocate for having at least a nominal lemon law on the books. the original proposal would have protected consumers quite a bit - but it was quickly defanged with enough money flowing into the campaigns for the right rural legislators who sat on the right committees. I imagine this is the case everywhere with our legalized corruption system
Dems have long lost dealership owners. Those owners are a powerful lobby, but they're not popular... not many people enjoy the process of buying a car and getting it serviced.
the US lost all credibility. Nobody gives a fish about what the US says anymore. I bet their military is on par with Russia. Certainly the men in the US won't fight for a country that hates them.
Chinese manufacturers are starting far below even the base of contemporary economy ICEs, this is another game entirely
one of the biggest reasons why they haven't taken over the US is because our infrastructure is decades behind. for most people to get a fast charge at home means they either need a new house or an electrical upgrade whereas chargers are everywhere in Chinese cities (even fast battery swap shops). given how balkanized transport authorities are (State's rights-to-not-work-together being in effect here) I suspect EV growth will mostly happen in urban centers willing to spend a little extra money on electrification rather than outfitting their police departments with milspec armored trucks