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Brilliant! This is the logic behind the birthday problem where you only need 45 people present to have greater than 90% chance that 2 people share a birthday.

Even rare events become very likely when you repeat it. A 5% wrong chance means half are dead after 10 tries

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> Even rare events become very likely when you repeat it.

True, but in my opinion 5 innocent dead out of hundred is not remotely small. For any serious automated decision anything larger than per million is completely unacceptable. (For reference, among Germans the amount of Jews killed by Nationalsocialists, is "only" 2.3‰ [160k vs. 69M] I don't think anyone considers that to be small.)

> A 5% wrong chance means half are dead after 10 tries

Actually ln(0.5)/ln(0.95) ≈ 13.513


nationalsociopaths

edit: maybe that's not a good conflation as it removes agency/responsibility from the individual




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