"Uh, I guess I'm kind of an independent", says the voter, knowing full well who they are going to pull the lever for but not wanting to share it with the pollster.
I find polls to have had very little predictive value since at least 2016. The disdain that people have for politicians is such that they can, imho, no longer be relied upon to state their preferences before or after the election to any pollster.
I find that generally "Independent", or "Non-political" or "Libertarian" in the US today usually means Republican (although admittedly the first is the lesser of these).
Like my County's Sheriff, up for re-election, as an Independent, "I voted for Trump three times". Or the County Auditor, also Independent, "I voted multiple times for Trump and for Bush."
I find polls to have had very little predictive value since at least 2016. The disdain that people have for politicians is such that they can, imho, no longer be relied upon to state their preferences before or after the election to any pollster.