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> They're afraid of running out of the capital necessary to stay in the race.

So, they're pacing themselves. And since they're the frontier roughly 33%+ of the time, they're "pacing the frontier" at least that much.

Less cynical and more true interpretation also holds: they are trying to slow down AI progres to give people better chance to keep up (see Hugging Face incident, and whatever was that Anthropic incident the other day). They'd ideally like the AI progress to stop soon, but of course they'd also like to come out ahead of everyone, so for various (more or less self-serving) reasons they don't want to close shop completely - hence, pacing.

help



If they're trying to slow down AI progress why did they release a new model? What's the rush?

The tension between slowing down the overall race, while not losing 1st place.

Also note that this release isn't a model capability improvement, but a cost and efficiency (and style) improvement.


So they care more about being 1st place than slowing down the race.

They care about both, and those goals are intertwined. Mirroring the core of alignment problem itself, the only way to have influence on the pace of the race is to be one of the winning players - if they fall off to the back, they cannot do anything about it anymore.

> the only way to have influence on the pace of the race is to be one of the winning players

Yeah I don't buy that, every additional player is just adding fuel to the fire.

Would the cold war be "safer" if it were US, Russia and a 3rd player? Of course not, it would just make it harder to coordinate any safety measures.


Are they? And how would you know if they were?



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