^ This. Progress will accelerate even in a pacing/slowdown scenario because the slowdown simply reduces the rate of AI progress from extremely fast to merely fast.

For an idea of what a serious AI forecaster expects a coordinated AI slowdown to be feel like for the average citizen, see:

https://ai-2040.com/?choices=plan-a-root#playbook-public-pov

and pacing doesn't necessarily even mean slowing down. It just means they're controlling the iteration speed. They can increase pace or decrease pace.