It's the difference between the value of "code" vs "software". Lots of people use those phrases interchangeably but its becoming painfully apparent that doesn't work anymore. Software requires more effort to actually make something IRL. Code can just be generated and sit in a repo, doing nothing, interacting with nothing.
Github has reported a 14x increase in code. Where did that 14x increase go? Certainly not to providing economic value - as you explained, we've basically flatlined there. It doesn't show up in revenue or profit margins. It doesn't show up in the app store metrics. It doesn't show up in speed or quality or security. It doesn't lead to new innovations or breakthroughs in software problems. All AI coding has done is to create more code.
The disconnect between 14xing code and barely 1.0xing software value is stark. It's not really an indicment on AI coding though. I think it reveals something interesting about the software industry. Specifically, that it was never about the code at all. It's about making that code do tricks in the real world - that's what constitutes almost the entirety of the value proposition. Code is cheap and getting cheaper. Software remains hard and is getting harder.
Github has reported a 14x increase in code. Where did that 14x increase go? Certainly not to providing economic value - as you explained, we've basically flatlined there. It doesn't show up in revenue or profit margins. It doesn't show up in the app store metrics. It doesn't show up in speed or quality or security. It doesn't lead to new innovations or breakthroughs in software problems. All AI coding has done is to create more code.
The disconnect between 14xing code and barely 1.0xing software value is stark. It's not really an indicment on AI coding though. I think it reveals something interesting about the software industry. Specifically, that it was never about the code at all. It's about making that code do tricks in the real world - that's what constitutes almost the entirety of the value proposition. Code is cheap and getting cheaper. Software remains hard and is getting harder.