So what? The point is to be non predictable not to pick all the numbers in the range with exactly the same probability. Would it be a problem if it never generated 16542?
By your argument, it would not be a problem if the RNG never generated 0. So, it must follow that it would also not be a problem if it never generated {1, 2, 3, ..., 253}.
That means that our RNG now only generates the values 254 and 255. Which of the values is generated is unpredictable on any given call. However, 7 of the 8 output bits are now always fixed and so completely predictable. Can you imagine how an attacker could exploit that?
Failing to generate only the number 0 is a weaker version of the same class of flaw.
We're talking about whether a modification of the expected probabilities changes the dynamics of the game. The example I gave was deliberately extreme, because that makes it easier to reason about.
If you want a casino example, then consider a roulette wheel that always lands on 36 but still pays out as usual. I think you'd want to play on it. Now consider one that always lands somewhere between 30 and 36. Still worth it, right? With careful bets and a good starting float you're still coming away from the table up (with a very high probability).
In fact for a roulette wheel you only need two dead pockets for the player to get an edge. Bias is exploitable.
Sure, but you’re pressing on the truth that a small modification taken to an extreme is a large modification.
When the original point was that a tiny fractional loss in an RNG is not going to make a practical difference. Which I believe is also true. And it is also true that a large loss in an RNG is catastrophic.
They can both be true.
And roulette is 2 out of 38, 5.2%. That’s 17 times more than the 1/256 here, which was already a simplification of the (I think) 1/65536 in question.
With respect, I think you're still missing my point, which is simply that bias introduces vulnerability. Without a real scenario to analyze, the scale doesn't really factor into the argument. A vulnerability is a vulnerability until proven mitigated.
> a tiny fractional loss in an RNG is not going to make a practical difference
I'm not so sure this is true. I don't think either of us is in a place to say whether this vulnerability has practical applications or not. A 1/65536 bias might seem like nothing important to you. It seems like potentially something to me, in a world where the attacker might control the volume of data generated.
It is absolutely untrue that a biased RNG has "zero practical impact." Modern cryptography has plenty of examples of relatively small biases leading to breaks. Check out Bleichenbacher's attack, for instance.
You could be correct that the very small bias here is not enough to be exploitable. But, given the history around this, it would be wrong to handwave it away as trivial.
Some cryptographic algorithms can be broken by this sort of bias (after 2^20, 2^35, or 2^70 operations), others are completely unaffected. There's certainly no excuse for not knowing, at least.
“Pick all the numbers in the range with exactly the same probability” is a very important property of RNGs. Yes, skipping 16542 would be equally bad.
You can frame it around being “non predictable”, but then you need to define those words. It’s not, for example, a poker game where it’s trying to bluff you, right? It’s also not about just making predictions < 100% reliable and declaring victory. It must specifically make all predictions no better than random guessing, and that entails picking any number in range with equal probability, otherwise predictions like “it will be {hot spot}” or “it won’t be {cold spot}” do better than random chance. In this case, specifically, I can predict with 100% accuracy that the result won’t be 0, and that’s a flaw in its unpredictability. I can also predict a bunch of other things with slightly higher accuracy than random guessing, like that it will be odd or greater than max ÷ 2.
It's not a 2^16-sided weighted die. But a 2^16 - 1 sided fair die.
I am not saying there is no bug. I am saying the bug has no practical impact.
Sure if you are that one guy that is getting these values raw from the instruction and comparing to zero for some purpose then you are in trouble. But I am pretty sure no one is doing that, especially given that the bug surfaced after 6 years of millions of users.
