That's going from 150w 720p gaming to ~15w 720p gaming in ~10 years. Let's say an inference cluster draws 1500w to deliver a small-ish 500b model at reasonable speeds/quantization.
Extrapolating from your gaming example, it will take smartphones only... *checks clipboard* ...100 years to achieve datacenter-level performance at the pace of 2010's improvements.
We don't need datacenter-level performance in a handheld device just like we didn't need a storage room in our backyard for a mid-sized, tape-based NAS because technology did its thing and gave us something smarter, smaller and faster.
Your argument is true if the number of parameters in an LLM is the only measurement for quality - a bit like number of bolts per aircraft or lines of code in software. I'd bet you that an 8b parameter LLM will in 5 years outperform the datacenter-level LLMs of today.
Extrapolating from your gaming example, it will take smartphones only... *checks clipboard* ...100 years to achieve datacenter-level performance at the pace of 2010's improvements.