Do you really think we can really get every country to truly pace the frontier? Pretty sure China won't give a f until they catch up Anthropic and OpenAI. It is an arm race. We had nukes for like 70 years and still haven't figured out how to make every single country follow those nuclear treaties, with an increasingly non-interventionist US I don't think we can get every single country to the table and agree to a pause. Will US accept their frontier being caught up by Chinese Labs? I don't think so.
We don't need every country to pace the frontier, just a certain few. And yes, I believe it's possible and the prior art is nuclear non-proliferation. Non-proliferation wasn't perfect, of course, but it was good enough (so far) to pull back from the brink of extinction.
