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> It's not unreasonable that these systems cap out at some point, or perhaps fizzle away entirely.

Yeah, like computers and mobile phones did. Things that have utility, even if not immediate or initially obvious, don't fizzle out.



That's survivor bias to the extreme.


What did fizzle away then and why do you believe AI is more similar to that thing than to computers?


Lots of goddamn awesome computers fizzled out. The Amiga being a prime example. Besides you can't just wave your arms in the most vague terms and then deny that survivor bias was ever a thing.


So your argument is that AI is more lika Amiga than computers? I'd say that Amiga wouldn't fizzle out if it wasn't superceded by pc. It very well may be that transformer architecture is going to be superceded by something like jepa or other world models but it doesn't change much.

Survivor bias is always a thing but it's not everything. All surviving things are not equal and neither are all gone things. If there are such things. Some cls technology never dies. There are new games written for 8-bit Atari today.




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