The deep earth isn't all that well studied, so while we know a fair amount about plate tectonics, there could be hidden factors influencing that action in ways we can't anticipate from recorded history. Who's to say there aren't 1000 or 10k year cycles of earthquakes? Something novel could happen too, but our records don't let us set probabilities for 10k year natural disasters the way we can with 100 year tropical storms, floods, or earthquakes.
Does the stratigraphy department of the international union of geological sciences have such thorough knowledge that they can make predictions about this stuff on geologic timescales? Getting any kind of truth from commercial oil companies is expensive. To them, knowledge is a weapon, and they lie whenever it is advantageous to lie.
