Is this big enough to produce a Tsunami? Apparently maybe only a small localised one, but I'm supposed to be getting the ferry from Lombok to Bali shortly and two of those have already burnt down the last 2 weeks!
A ferry in the open ocean is one of the safer places to be during a tsunami. Remember, it's not a surf-style wave, but a gradual increase in water level.
Longer & significantly less edited video from the above's cited source: https://youtu.be/-VcWF8dIDj4. There is a comment with the translations of what's being said that adds a lot of info/meaning. Particularly this was at a relatively shallow depth (38 meters) only a couple miles off the coast, the above ferry would spend most of its time in >200 meter waters according to https://www.arcgis.com/apps/mapviewer/index.html?webmap=019a... so would probably look nothing like this at most points in the trip.
After the tsunami, would the current induced by the water drawback disrupt the ferry ability to come back ? I wonder if the ocean “rise” again (water on top of water) or if it’s more a current-style (water push water) movement.
Extremely. They are quite slow laterally (a couple knots while docking), the lateral currents (which are not constant or unidirectional) reach 2-4x+, throwing them into whatever happens to be in the way.
AFAIK the bigger issue is that the boats are grounded so violently when the water recedes that the hulls get destroyed before they even have a chance.
This tends to be why they put everything they have into getting further out to sea the moment a warning is issued.
They've declared the event over - some waves were generated but nothing particularly large. Bulletin 3 for the recent quake includes wave height observations - maximum reported was 94cm; most were under 50cm.
That's a hypothetical "hazard" of a megatsunami and on top of that, seems reaaaally unlikely to happen within the lifetime of any of us:
> Giant landslides are rare events.[117] Humanity has never witnessed enormous collapses on La Palma[59] and there is evidence that the western flank of La Palma is currently stable[65] and a collapse in the near future is unlikely.[133] A worst-case scenario giant landslide like the one modelled by Ward and Day 2001 is a very low probability event, probably much less common than once per 100,000 years[123]
But, never say never, apparently we're ruining the planet faster than anyone of us thought possible just 50 years ago, so who knows what could happen.
I've seen "possible tsunami" pre-warnings, and a sea level gauge at/near Lembar showing sea level oscillations - so I would recommend keeping a close watch on some information source that's better than HN comment threads, yes.
I would upgrade the ferry and make sure to get a high quality one given all the swell in the ocean already (most of bali had 6ft+ waves yesterday) and this incident. Not worth the risk.
