somewhere among 2 TRILLION planets in our galaxy there is a planet with enough atmosphere and magnetosphere to protect it from space radiation so there is likely bacteria
but complex life far more difficult and unlikely, very rare, as explained in the PBS Space Time I linked above, the "Cambrian Explosion"
"SpudCell" already has 36 genes; the information encoded there basically cannot occur by random processes. There is still an enormous complexity gap between it and abiotic systems.
> somewhere among 2 TRILLION planets in our galaxy there is a planet with enough atmosphere and magnetosphere to protect it from space radiation so there is likely bacteria
I reject this conclusion; it certainly isn't justified by the links you provided.
I think the answer to the question is easy if we consider quantum mechanics. It says every possible random event manifests in some universe. This means that an event or combination of events, no matter how incredibly unique, manifests in some universe.
Imagine the very first cell. Imagine that all the particles of that cell coming into the exact spatial location by pure random chance. It is a chain of incredibly random events. But it does not matter. QM says that it manifests in some universe.
So, We are just in one such universe. Of course, there might be universes where this incredibly random event have manifested more than once. But since then number of such universes are minuscule when compared to the number of universes where it happened only once, there is an overwhelming chance that we, as one conscious species, finds ourselves in a universe where life originated only once.
In the same manner, there could be universes where an entire brain assembled itself purely randomly. But the number of such worlds are a small fraction of the worlds where a single cell formed, and followed the relatively simple procedure of natural selection and end up as beings who can ask such kinds of questions.
Sorry, when you make an assertion, you don't get to demand I justify questioning it. You need to explain why I should believe you.
Your reversal of burden of proof is a red flag that you don't have a good argument.
IMO, it is quite plausible that OoL is extremely unlikely and that our solar system is the only place where life occurs in the visible universe. Not proved, of course, but the possibility is by no means unreasonable.
wasn't demanding, just wanted to hear what your own logic was instead
but it's pointless to go any further I guess as it's getting outside science
the weak anthropic principle can't be falsified so it cannot be argued
I don't think we'll ever hear from "ET" but I do think it's perfectly plausible to find single-celled or simple bacteria elsewhere someday (ie. Europa, comet or asteroid)
If I were saying we were definitely rare or unique, you'd have an argument.
But I'm not doing that -- I'm saying it's a possibility that is consistent with evidence.
The claim that life is common is different. For that, you really need to present an argument that life being uncommon is ruled out.
In your last sentence there you've retreated from "life is common" to "it's plausible life is common". Sure (within the constraints of the Fermi Argument, but that has uncertainties.)
Its an exciting time to be alive because as of recently we certainly can detect planetary atmosphere major components out to at least 700 or so light years.
There are astronomers actively working on minor component, more biologically interesting spectrographs like chlorophyll rather than spectrograms of carbon dioxide. That'll be harder to detect and limited to shorter ranges.
At some point, probably very soon, like less than a decade, we'll be able to definitively state that we have atmospheric data in an onion layer shaped shell where we have unequivocable proof that out to X lightyears from Earth there's no planetary scale chlorophyll higher than a minimal level aka there's no earth-like plants on that planet. That shell will likely expand over time. Or, perhaps we will find a forested, or at least algae covered, planet, some light years away, which would be very interesting indeed.
The question is rapidly changing from a purely philosophical belief to scientific observation, like right now, in real time, in the 2020s. What a cool time to be alive!
This follows old, old stuff from radio astronomy along the lines of how far away could a 1960s radio telescope realistically detect life on earth. The answer IIRC was not very far LOL. But there's been a lot of progress in radio astronomy, etc.
With respect to fermi filters etc people need to pay attention to how far away the Earth can be detected using radio telescopes. That distance has imploded since the end of analog UHF TV broadcasts. We still broadcast absolute swill, in fact more than ever, but digital detection range is much lower than analog AM carrier detection range from analog TV. The Earth has, to some extent, recently gone radio-quiet, which is interesting because we are still here, in fact more of us than ever. So WRT fermi filters of not being able to detect civilizations, disappearance of 1950s/1960s signals does not necessarily imply disappearance of civilization. Another example, if any aliens are watching the high altitude freon contamination of our atmosphere they're likely really confused right about now.
I agree. The Fermi Argument, and the apparent rarity of K3 civilizations in other galaxies, is to me powerful evidence of the scarcity of life. At the least, this suggests SETI should focus on distant galaxies where the Fermi argument doesn't bite as much.
