So in a couple years now, AI will be as gone as cabbage patch kids and pet rocks?
IMO that's anti-AI Psychosis, the evil twin of believing GPT-4o was sentient. And a really bad case of it is labeling anyone who disagrees with you in any way as having AI Psychosis for doing so. And your first line sounds exactly like that to me.
IMO coding agents alone have made AI viable. Healthcare applications have done the same, but coding agents will print money as the cost of tokens drops, and it is dropping. In the meantime, max plans are obviously subsidized, but as long as most of their holders don't token max, they are the netflix of AI until that changes.
We needed OpenAI and Anthropic to get us there, but we're there now, and they need to adjust or they will be reduced to glorified neoclouds in the long run. I also predict publicly traded companies that are AI-first with huge PE ratios will go through some things. What I will not do is even try to pin a date on that. The market can stay irrational longer than any of us can stay solvent. But I wouldn't worry so much about companies with high gross margin and PE ratios of 40 or less. Time in the market beats timing the market and all that.
TBF my realtor was telling me about the "Got a pulse? Here's your mortgage!" issue starting in late 2004 after a bizarre conversation with his favorite loan agent after she had done too many tequila shots and started blabbing about basically giving loans to anyone. 100% true story. But again, good luck timing the crash.
> So in a couple years now, AI will be as gone as cabbage patch kids and pet rocks?
> IMO that's anti-AI Psychosis, the evil twin of believing GPT-4o was sentient.
IMO that’s a particularly scraggly straw man. Even Ed Zitron, who we can stipulate is among the most cynical, thinks that some value will be left after the bubble either deflates or bursts.
So some value, but how much value? You clearly don't like the idea there are some businesses in the AI mix that will continue making money and/or diversify their divisions to cover for any losses they suffer during this hypothetical crash or I wouldn't be getting downvoted for it. META, for example, is running a gross margin of 80% or so right now. You really think they're in trouble?
So really, after all of these companies are wiped off the map because the bubble popped and they went broke, what will be left? Let's get specific here. Let's make some hard falsifiable predictions.
I predict bumpy IPOs for Anthropic and OpenAI, maybe even ending in acquisition instead. I predict anything with a PE over 100 is in trouble. But I also predict anyone with a PE of 40 or less is going to be just fine. Like Michael Burry said, just like Cisco, now running a PE in the high 30s after going through some things. Finally, coding agents are here to stay and they will only get better and cheaper, but they are unlikely to replace common sense meatbags.
IMO that's anti-AI Psychosis, the evil twin of believing GPT-4o was sentient. And a really bad case of it is labeling anyone who disagrees with you in any way as having AI Psychosis for doing so. And your first line sounds exactly like that to me.
IMO coding agents alone have made AI viable. Healthcare applications have done the same, but coding agents will print money as the cost of tokens drops, and it is dropping. In the meantime, max plans are obviously subsidized, but as long as most of their holders don't token max, they are the netflix of AI until that changes.
https://pricepertoken.com/trends
We needed OpenAI and Anthropic to get us there, but we're there now, and they need to adjust or they will be reduced to glorified neoclouds in the long run. I also predict publicly traded companies that are AI-first with huge PE ratios will go through some things. What I will not do is even try to pin a date on that. The market can stay irrational longer than any of us can stay solvent. But I wouldn't worry so much about companies with high gross margin and PE ratios of 40 or less. Time in the market beats timing the market and all that.
TBF my realtor was telling me about the "Got a pulse? Here's your mortgage!" issue starting in late 2004 after a bizarre conversation with his favorite loan agent after she had done too many tequila shots and started blabbing about basically giving loans to anyone. 100% true story. But again, good luck timing the crash.