That makes sense it’s plausible models stay trapped in verifiable domains and even if software engineers can be 10x more productive today the overall economic impact of that is meaningful but perhaps too modest for the capital investment to be recouped in the time frame required. It does also seem plausible to me, though, that the state reached in software in the last two months gets hit in many more domains in the next couple of years and when zooming out the end consumer and business spend just keeps growing rapidly as more and more capabilities emerge and mature across sectors and professions.
Verifiability is really, really, really hard in domains that aren't engineered for it.
Even in software, we are struggling with the huge amounts of code shipped by LLMs. Most other industries have no automated way to give the models feedback so the impacts will (over the short term) be pretty limited.
That being said, I reckon I'll get 20 years of work integrating this tech into the world, so it might be OK.
