> But along the same dimension, consider that currently only about 40 - 60% of the world uses AI for only about 5 - 15% of their work hours.
Ah yes, i am constantly lamenting that my barista isn’t using ai enough ;)
Hopefully you’ve adjusted your ceiling numbers to account for the large amount of people who can’t afford to pay for llms, and will never be able to pay, and aren’t worth it to advertise to since they can afford very little
If you're considering baristas, you're not looking at the right group of people who will be paying for this. The total global spend on knowledge work salaries is $50 - 70 trillion annually: https://gist.github.com/danielmiessler/2dc039762a202b083753b...
It's not the baristas or other workers who are spending that money.
If AI makes knowledge workers 1% more efficient on average that is $500 - 700 billion annually. Actual productivity numbers from studies from all the way back in 2024 put the productivity boost above 30%, so add the appropriate grains of salt and adjust numbers accordingly.
That is what the ceiling numbers should be based on. Your baristas will also be using AI eventually, paid for by their employers of course, but that would just be a cherry on top of the real TAM.
Ah yes, i am constantly lamenting that my barista isn’t using ai enough ;)
Hopefully you’ve adjusted your ceiling numbers to account for the large amount of people who can’t afford to pay for llms, and will never be able to pay, and aren’t worth it to advertise to since they can afford very little