People promoting investment in AI are fooling you with bad TAM estimates. For example, if we valued every spreadsheet created using the same metrics of pre-automation paper spreadsheets, spreadsheets would be a $100 trillion business.
Computing technologies are relentlessly deflationary. If the value of their TAM wasn't a fraction of a manual process they replace, they wouldn't have a productivity advantage. And the amount of TAM per unit often declines over the life of that product category.
I would be unsurprised to find investment in data centers to be 10X what was really needed. The same goes for where the LLM S curve starts to flatten.
Computing technologies are relentlessly deflationary. If the value of their TAM wasn't a fraction of a manual process they replace, they wouldn't have a productivity advantage. And the amount of TAM per unit often declines over the life of that product category.
I would be unsurprised to find investment in data centers to be 10X what was really needed. The same goes for where the LLM S curve starts to flatten.